Jets @ Bills Picks & Props

Buffalo is going to tread lightly with James Cook and Josh Allen in Week 18, both TEs questionable coming in, and that means Johnson becomes much more involved, especially in the red zone. He’s a threat on the ground and through the air and with Trubisky potentially taking over under center, the Bills passing game will get simple. Jets defense is a dud and one of the worst RZ defenses in the NFL and New York has allowed 25 total TDs to RBs – rushing and receiving – which is most in the NFL. 

The Bills are still playing for seeding and will play their last game at Highmark Stadium, but there’s a real chance some starters get limited or rested, which makes TD props in this spot a bit risky, especially with a late kickoff. That said, Khalil Shakir has plenty to play for. He’s one TD away from unlocking a $150,000 bonus and draws about as soft a matchup as it gets. The Jets have lost four straight games by 20-plus points, and Shakir remains Buffalo’s highest-volume pass catcher. He should see enough run to contribute early or be given a chance to hit the bonus, even if Josh Allen is limited. There’s risk betting it early, but the angle makes sense.

Not only have the Jets lost by an average of 26.8 points during their four-game losing skid, they’ve also failed to cover the spread in all four while allowing the highest offensive success rate and dropback EPA per play. Now, New York heads to Highmark Stadium to face a Buffalo offense looking to get back on track in Week 18. The Bills also have an outside shot of improving their postseason seed, too.

The Jets will be forced to utilize backup QB Brady Cook in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. The Jets are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.. The Bills safeties rank as the 4th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.