Dan Campbell will try to get his team up for this game, but I’m not sure how effective that will be, how much his stars will ultimately play, or how much it even matters if the Lions are at 100% on Sunday. Right now, Chicago is the better team. With a small spread at home, I’m taking the Bears to cover.
Olamide Zaccheaus was a late scratch last week due to illness and should be good to go by Sunday. Jahdae Walker absorbed most of his work, running routes on 71% of dropbacks and finishing with 30 yards and a red-zone target. If Zaccheaus returns, he’s expected to reclaim a larger role, especially with Rome Odunze potentially missing his fifth straight game. Chicago is still playing for the No. 2 seed, and Ben Johnson gets another shot at his former team. The Bears torched Detroit in Week 2, hanging 52 points while Chicago WRs piled up 234 yards and two TDs. There’s some risk the illness lingers, but with TD prices already moving on Luther Burden and Coltson Loveland, this is a spot worth monitoring closely through the week.
An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Lions being a massive -10.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. With a top-tier 39.0% Red Zone Target Share (100th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands as one of the wideouts with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.. After totaling 68.0 air yards per game last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen marked improvement this season, now pacing 82.0 per game.
This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 53.1% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. This year, the strong Lions defense has surrendered a mere 62.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 9th-lowest rate in the league.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 53.1% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has allowed a mere 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best rate in football.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Lions being a massive -10.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jared Goff to throw 37.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.
This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 53.1% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has allowed a mere 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best rate in football.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Lions being a massive -10.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jared Goff to throw 37.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.. With an impressive tally of 247.0 adjusted passing yards per game (92nd percentile), Jared Goff rates among the best passers in the league this year.
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.7 per game) this year.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Lions ranks as the 8th-worst in football this year.. The Chicago Bears have intercepted 1.19 balls per game this year, ranking as the best defense in the NFL by this statistic.
An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Lions being a massive -10.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. In this contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 99th percentile among RBs with 7.8 targets.. Jahmyr Gibbs has been a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this year (18.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.4%).
An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Lions being a massive -10.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. This week, Amon-Ra St. Brown is predicted by the predictive model to find himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 11.7 targets.. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 32.2% Target% this season illustrates a noteworthy gain in his passing game workload over last season's 27.1% rate.
The Bears feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Ben Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are forecasted by the model to run 69.0 offensive plays in this contest: the most among all teams this week.. The Chicago Bears have called the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.4 plays per game.. With an elite 48.6% Route% (81st percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift rates among the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads in the league.. The leading projections forecast D'Andre Swift to total 3.0 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
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