Colston Loveland Score a Touchdown Props • Chicago
C. Loveland
tight end TE • Chicago
Lions @ Bears Picks & Props
DET vs CHI Picks
NFL Picks
Score a Touchdown
Olamide Zaccheaus Score a Touchdown (Yes: +260)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Olamide Zaccheaus was a late scratch last week due to illness and should be good to go by Sunday. Jahdae Walker absorbed most of his work, running routes on 71% of dropbacks and finishing with 30 yards and a red-zone target. If Zaccheaus returns, he’s expected to reclaim a larger role, especially with Rome Odunze potentially missing his fifth straight game. Chicago is still playing for the No. 2 seed, and Ben Johnson gets another shot at his former team. The Bears torched Detroit in Week 2, hanging 52 points while Chicago WRs piled up 234 yards and two TDs. There’s some risk the illness lingers, but with TD prices already moving on Luther Burden and Coltson Loveland, this is a spot worth monitoring closely through the week.
Passing Completions
Caleb Williams u19.5 Passing Completions (-113)
Projection 16.28 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 3 points.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 53.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has allowed a mere 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best rate in football.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
Passing Attempts
Jared Goff o32.5 Passing Attempts (-110)
Projection 36.33 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Lions being a massive -10.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 60.2% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jared Goff to throw 38.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most out of all QBs.
Passing Yards
Caleb Williams u237.5 Passing Yards (-107)
Projection 192.64 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 3 points.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 53.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has allowed a mere 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best rate in football.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
Passing Yards
Jared Goff o253.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 265.96 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Lions being a massive -10.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 60.2% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jared Goff to throw 38.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most out of all QBs.. With an impressive tally of 247.0 adjusted passing yards per game (92nd percentile), Jared Goff rates among the best passers in the league this year.
Interceptions Thrown
Jared Goff u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-105)
Projection 0.41 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.7 per game) this year.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Lions ranks as the 8th-worst in football this year.. The Chicago Bears have intercepted 1.19 balls per game this year, ranking as the best defense in the NFL by this statistic.
Rushing Yards
Caleb Williams o20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 25.57 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 3 points.. The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 46.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 135.3 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The Chicago Bears have called the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.4 plays per game.
Rushing Yards
D'Andre Swift o52.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 58.78 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 3 points.. The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 46.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 135.3 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The Chicago Bears have called the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.4 plays per game.. In this game, D'Andre Swift is expected by the model to find himself in the 78th percentile among running backs with 13.9 rush attempts.
DET vs CHI Consensus Picks
DET vs CHI Props
Player
Prop
Season Avg.
Best Odds
Durham Smythe Score a Touchdown Props • Chicago
D. Smythe
tight end TE • Chicago
Anthony Firkser Score a Touchdown Props • Detroit
A. Firkser
tight end TE • Detroit
Travis Homer Score a Touchdown Props • Chicago
T. Homer
running back RB • Chicago
Cole Kmet Score a Touchdown Props • Chicago
C. Kmet
tight end TE • Chicago
Jahmyr Gibbs Score a Touchdown Props • Detroit
J. Gibbs
running back RB • Detroit
Shane Zylstra Score a Touchdown Props • Detroit
S. Zylstra
tight end TE • Detroit
Olamide Zaccheaus Score a Touchdown Props • Chicago
O. Zaccheaus
wide receiver WR • Chicago
DJ Moore Score a Touchdown Props • Chicago
D. Moore
wide receiver WR • Chicago
Tom Kennedy Score a Touchdown Props • Detroit
T. Kennedy
wide receiver WR • Detroit
D'Andre Swift Score a Touchdown Props • Chicago
D. Swift
running back RB • Chicago
Rome Odunze Score a Touchdown Props • Chicago
R. Odunze
wide receiver WR • Chicago
Amon-Ra St. Brown Score a Touchdown Props • Detroit
A. St. Brown
wide receiver WR • Detroit
Kyle Monangai Score a Touchdown Props • Chicago
K. Monangai
running back RB • Chicago
Luther Burden III Score a Touchdown Props • Chicago
L. Burden III
wide receiver WR • Chicago
David Montgomery Score a Touchdown Props • Detroit
D. Montgomery
running back RB • Detroit
Caleb Williams Score a Touchdown Props • Chicago
C. Williams
quarterback QB • Chicago
Jameson Williams Score a Touchdown Props • Detroit
J. Williams
wide receiver WR • Detroit
Jahdae Walker Score a Touchdown Props • Chicago
J. Walker
wide receiver WR • Chicago
Isaac TeSlaa Score a Touchdown Props • Detroit
I. TeSlaa
wide receiver WR • Detroit
Jared Goff Score a Touchdown Props • Detroit
J. Goff
quarterback QB • Detroit
Devin Duvernay Score a Touchdown Props • Chicago
D. Duvernay
wide receiver WR • Chicago
Kalif Raymond Score a Touchdown Props • Detroit
K. Raymond
wide receiver WR • Detroit
Sione Vaki Score a Touchdown Props • Detroit
S. Vaki
running back RB • Detroit
Dominic Lovett Score a Touchdown Props • Detroit
D. Lovett
wide receiver WR • Detroit
Jacob Saylors Score a Touchdown Props • Detroit
J. Saylors
running back RB • Detroit
DET vs CHI Trends
Detroit Trends
The Detroit Lions have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.60 Units / 14% ROI)
DET
CHI
The Detroit Lions have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.15 Units / 34% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 15% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.85 Units / 23% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.75 Units / 33% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.75 Units / 19% ROI)
Over
Under
The Detroit Lions have only hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 22 games (-15.35 Units / -24% ROI)
DET
CHI
The Detroit Lions have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 22 games (-10.60 Units / -23% ROI)
DET
CHI
The Detroit Lions have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 18 games (-10.45 Units / -49% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 20 games (-7.20 Units / -21% ROI)
DET
CHI
The Detroit Lions have only hit the 1H Team Total Over in 3 of their last 10 away games (-5.60 Units / -46% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 18 games (-7.00 Units / -22% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have only covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 22 games (-4.75 Units / -18% ROI)
DET
CHI
Chicago Trends
The Chicago Bears have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+14.90 Units / 55% ROI)
DET
CHI
The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 48% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.10 Units / 41% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+8.03 Units / 39% ROI)
DET
CHI
