Dolphins @ Patriots Picks & Props

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The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.. This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has given up a staggering 88.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the highest rate in football.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

The Dolphins are a heavy 11.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. In regards to air yards, De'Von Achane ranks in the lofty 92nd percentile among running backs this year, accruing a remarkable 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. De'Von Achane's 32.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 22.4.. De'Von Achane grades out in the 92nd percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an excellent 0.22 per game.. This year, the formidable New England Patriots run defense has surrendered a measly 0.69 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 4th-smallest rate in the NFL.

The Dolphins are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 57.9% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest clip among all teams this week.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. This year, the formidable New England Patriots run defense has surrendered a measly 0.69 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 4th-smallest rate in the NFL.. The Patriots safeties profile as the best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.5% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Hunter Henry's 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 44.2.. Hunter Henry's 3.1 adjusted catches per game this year marks a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching ability over last year's 4.2 rate.

The Dolphins are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 57.9% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest clip among all teams this week.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.2%) to wideouts this year (67.2%).

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.. This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has given up a staggering 88.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the highest rate in football.. When it comes to defensive ends pass-rushing, Miami's DE corps has been very bad this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.. In this week's contest, Stefon Diggs is predicted by the predictive model to place in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.5 targets.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.5%) to WRs this year (67.5%).

The Dolphins are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 57.9% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest clip among all teams this week.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. This year, the poor New England Patriots pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 85.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 8th-worst rate in the league.

The Dolphins are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 57.9% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest clip among all teams this week.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. In this week's contest, Greg Dulcich is anticipated by the predictive model to place in the 90th percentile among tight ends with 6.2 targets.. Greg Dulcich's 83.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a significant improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 47.9% figure.

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.. This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a colossal 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.. The Dolphins defense has given up the 6th-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.75 per game this year.

The Dolphins are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 57.9% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest clip among all teams this week.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. This year, the poor New England Patriots defense has surrendered a colossal 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-worst rate in football.

The Dolphins are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 57.9% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest clip among all teams this week.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. This year, the poor New England Patriots defense has surrendered a colossal 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-worst rate in football.

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.. This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a colossal 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.. When it comes to defensive ends pass-rushing, Miami's DE corps has been very bad this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.

The Dolphins are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 57.9% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest clip among all teams this week.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.. This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a colossal 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.. This year, the weak Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a monstrous 7.92 yards.

The Dolphins are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 57.9% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest clip among all teams this week.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. This year, the poor New England Patriots defense has surrendered a colossal 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-worst rate in football.

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Dolphins are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 57.9% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest clip among all teams this week.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. The New England Patriots have intercepted 0.51 targets per game this year, ranking as the 7th-worst defense in football by this standard

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.. This year, the shaky Dolphins defense has yielded a staggering 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 8th-worst in the NFL.. This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has given up a staggering 88.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the highest rate in football.

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.. In this week's contest, Stefon Diggs is predicted by the predictive model to place in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.5 targets.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.. Stefon Diggs ranks as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a remarkable 57.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.

The Dolphins are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 57.9% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest clip among all teams this week.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.. This year, the poor New England Patriots pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 85.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 8th-worst rate in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 2nd-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 51.8 per game on average).. The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.. Greg Dulcich profiles as one of the worst tight ends in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.. The Patriots linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Dolphins are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. De'Von Achane's 73.1% Route% this season represents a remarkable growth in his pass attack workload over last season's 61.2% figure.. In this contest, De'Von Achane is predicted by our trusted projection set to place in the 96th percentile among RBs with 6.0 targets.. In regards to air yards, De'Von Achane ranks in the lofty 92nd percentile among running backs this year, accruing a remarkable 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. This year, the poor New England Patriots pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 85.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 9th-worst rate in the league.

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.. In this contest, Hunter Henry is predicted by the projection model to land in the 84th percentile among tight ends with 5.3 targets.. Hunter Henry has notched a massive 41.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among tight ends.. This year, the weak Dolphins defense has conceded a staggering 63.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 7th-most in the league.

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At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to be the 11th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (129 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 2nd-most run-focused team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 44.7% run rate.. The leading projections forecast De'Von Achane to earn 17.4 carries in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.. After comprising 46.4% of his offense's run game usage last year, De'Von Achane has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, now making up 62.9%.. De'Von Achane has rushed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (68.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).. De'Von Achane's 5.1 adjusted yards per carry this season conveys a meaningful growth in his rushing proficiency over last season's 4.2 rate.

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The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. The model projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to be the 11th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to be the 11th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.