Dolphins @ Patriots Picks & Props

The Patriots still have everything to play for, with outcomes ranging from the No. 1 seed to the No. 3 seed. That urgency sets up well for a focused offensive game plan against Miami in cold-weather conditions. Efton Chism ran the second-most routes last week, played more than 90% of the snaps in the second half, and cashed a 10-yard touchdown in the third quarter. His snap share should remain high, and with Stefon Diggs dealing with legal issues and Kayshon Boutte still in the concussion protocol, Chism could be a featured wideout in Week 18. At +450, this is a price I’d play down to +300.

The Dolphins defense is so bad and the Patriots offense is so good that it won't matter how much the Dolphins can score for this Over to hit. 

Mike McDaniels' Dolphins teams have always struggled in cold weather and the Patriots need this win to try and get the 1-seed in the AFC. 

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (55.3% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins.. The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 2nd-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 51.8 per game on average).. The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.. The Patriots linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to be the 11th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (129 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 2nd-most run-focused team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 44.7% run rate.. The leading projections forecast De'Von Achane to earn 17.4 carries in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.. After comprising 46.4% of his offense's run game usage last year, De'Von Achane has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, now making up 62.9%.. De'Von Achane has rushed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (68.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).. De'Von Achane's 5.1 adjusted yards per carry this season conveys a meaningful growth in his rushing proficiency over last season's 4.2 rate.