Packers @ Vikings Picks & Props
GB vs MIN Picks
NFL Picks
Total
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The Packers have already locked down the No. 7 seed in the NFC, and they will sit Jordan Love here as he continues to recover from a concussion. The Vikings, meanwhile, are out of the playoff picture despite their four-game winning run, and JJ McCarthy is expected to play after recovering from an injury.
Clayton Tune has little NFL experience, and I’m not exactly expecting him to light it up offensively. McCarthy hasn’t played in a couple of weeks as well, and he’s been relatively inconsistent when available. Both starting running backs are also sidelined, as Josh Jacobs and Aaron Jones are injured. Hammer the Under here. I simply do not see this being a high-scoring affair.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 10th-most in football.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-highest clip in the NFL against the Green Bay Packers defense this year (72.3% Adjusted Completion%).
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Packers will be starting backup quarterback Clayton Tune in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Packers to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.. The Vikings linebackers profile as the 7th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 10th-most in football.. In this week's contest, Josh Oliver is predicted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 75th percentile among TEs with 4.5 targets.. The leading projections forecast Josh Oliver to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack in this contest (15.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.5% in games he has played).. Josh Oliver grades out as one of the most reliable receivers in football among TEs, hauling in a stellar 82.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 75th percentile.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Packers will be starting backup quarterback Clayton Tune in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Packers to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.. The Vikings linebackers profile as the 7th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.
Rushing Yards
JM
Jordan Mason o67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 72.57 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.. The predictive model expects Jordan Mason to notch 17.9 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.. The model projects Jordan Mason to be a less important option in his offense's run game in this contest (32.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.4% in games he has played).
GB vs MIN Consensus Picks
52% picking Green Bay
Total Picks GB 593, MIN 549
48% picking Green Bay vs Minnesota to go Under
Total PicksGB 412, MIN 375
GB vs MIN Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MONEYLINE
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
JM
Jordan Mason
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.66 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
Justin Jefferson
(WR)
u5.5 Receptions Made
5.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
Matthew Golden
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions Made
3.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
9.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
Josh Oliver
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
3.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
8.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
JM
Jordan Mason
(RB)
u1.5 Receptions Made
1.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
5.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o1.5 Passing Touchdowns
1.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
11.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
Clayton Tune
(QB)
o0.5 Passing Touchdowns
0.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.0
DIFFERENCE
-19.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o17.5 Passing Completions
19.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
17.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o26.5 Passing Attempts
28.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.4
DIFFERENCE
15.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
Clayton Tune
(QB)
o159.5 Passing Yards
198.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+38.9
DIFFERENCE
26.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o194.5 Passing Yards
218.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+23.7
DIFFERENCE
25.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Clayton Tune
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-14.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-15.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
Josh Oliver
(TE)
o23.5 Receiving Yards
33.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.1
DIFFERENCE
26.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
Matthew Golden
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
41.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.3
DIFFERENCE
25.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
Justin Jefferson
(WR)
o67.5 Receiving Yards
71.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.2
DIFFERENCE
13.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
JM
Jordan Mason
(RB)
o7.5 Receiving Yards
8.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
10.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o13.5 Rushing Yards
20.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.9
DIFFERENCE
26.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
JM
Jordan Mason
(RB)
o67.5 Rushing Yards
72.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.1
DIFFERENCE
19.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o4.5 Rushing Attempts
4.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
10.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
JM
Jordan Mason
(RB)
u16.5 Rushing Attempts
16.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
2.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
Clayton Tune
(QB)
u15.5 Rushing Yards
15.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
0.09%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
MONEYLINE
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
JM
Jordan Mason
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.66 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.45%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
Justin Jefferson
(WR)
u5.5 Receptions Made
5.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.45%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
Matthew Golden
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions Made
3.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
9.99%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
Josh Oliver
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
3.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
8.63%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
JM
Jordan Mason
(RB)
u1.5 Receptions Made
1.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
5.94%
EV
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o1.5 Passing Touchdowns
1.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
11.02%
EV
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
Clayton Tune
(QB)
o0.5 Passing Touchdowns
0.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.0
DIFFERENCE
-19.62%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o17.5 Passing Completions
19.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
17.75%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o26.5 Passing Attempts
28.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.4
DIFFERENCE
15.71%
EV
PASSING YARDS
Clayton Tune
(QB)
o159.5 Passing Yards
198.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+38.9
DIFFERENCE
26.51%
EV
PASSING YARDS
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o194.5 Passing Yards
218.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+23.7
DIFFERENCE
25.74%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Clayton Tune
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-14.16%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-15.32%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
Josh Oliver
(TE)
o23.5 Receiving Yards
33.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.1
DIFFERENCE
26.01%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
Matthew Golden
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
41.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.3
DIFFERENCE
25.69%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
Justin Jefferson
(WR)
o67.5 Receiving Yards
71.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.2
DIFFERENCE
13.47%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
JM
Jordan Mason
(RB)
o7.5 Receiving Yards
8.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
10.83%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o13.5 Rushing Yards
20.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.9
DIFFERENCE
26.02%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
JM
Jordan Mason
(RB)
o67.5 Rushing Yards
72.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.1
DIFFERENCE
19.54%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J.J. McCarthy
(QB)
o4.5 Rushing Attempts
4.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
10.08%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
JM
Jordan Mason
(RB)
u16.5 Rushing Attempts
16.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
2.85%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
Clayton Tune
(QB)
u15.5 Rushing Yards
15.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
0.09%
EV
GB vs MIN Trends
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GB vs MIN Top User Picks
Green Bay Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jazzmatazz | 8-2-0 | +7550 |
| 2 | vitom | 7-3-0 | +6700 |
| 3 | bradfordb | 9-1-0 | +6500 |
| 4 | Skater4Life | 7-3-0 | +6450 |
| 5 | mjboxer | 8-2-0 | +6200 |
| 6 | checkers | 5-5-0 | +6000 |
| 7 | oldgeezergloria | 8-2-0 | +6000 |
| 8 | saintsnola15 | 8-2-0 | +5950 |
| 9 | starpano | 8-2-0 | +5950 |
| 10 | Jhusagic | 5-5-0 | +5700 |
| All Packers Money Leaders | |||
Minnesota Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | twobwin | 7-2-1 | +9200 |
| 2 | patelnydevil289 | 8-2-0 | +7150 |
| 3 | peachiee2023 | 6-4-0 | +7050 |
| 4 | chickenhawk3233 | 6-3-1 | +6550 |
| 5 | Seawep95 | 7-3-0 | +6500 |
| 6 | n1stunnor | 7-3-0 | +6500 |
| 7 | KRU | 6-4-0 | +6500 |
| 8 | bluetide007 | 7-3-0 | +6000 |
| 9 | greyford | 6-4-0 | +6000 |
| 10 | Rads5777 | 7-3-0 | +5500 |
| All Vikings Money Leaders | |||