Indianapolis is down Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward and this pass defense has given up big gains through the air, allowing 12.4 yards per completion over the past three games – tied for fourth most. On the season, Indianapolis’ man-centric schemes have given up the 10th most receptions of 20-plus yards. Jennings leads the 49ers attack in explosive plays, with seven catches for 20 or more yards, and also tops the team with the most targets versus man coverage. With fellow WR Ricky Pearsall once again injured, Jennings’ role in this offense gets a shot in the arm. He’ll be the primary deep threat and while he hasn’t played in many indoor games throughout his career, his yards per reception soars from seven to more than 11 yards in domed venues.
Downs was one of Philip Rivers’ favorite targets in the veteran quarterback’s first start last Sunday. Rivers attempts 27 total passes and five of those came to Downs, who caught three of those balls for just 13 yards (one for a touchdown). San Francisco is a softer secondary than the Seattle Seahawks and the Niners’ passive zone-heavy schemes are susceptible to slot receivers. Downs is the Colts’ primary slot option and those quick short routes are a perfect fit for Indianapolis’ limited passing game. Head coach Shane Steichen said to expect more vertical passes from this offense and with the game indoors as well as a pass-positive game script (Colts +5.5 at home), there is a high ceiling for the Indianapolis receivers. Downs did miss practice time this week but it wasn’t due to an injury (personal reasons). The majority of his Week 16 projections come in at 31.6 receiving yards or higher.
The game moves indoors, Philip Rivers gets another week in the offense, and he’s no longer dealing with the environment at Lumen Field. San Francisco is also finally healthy on offense, giving this matchup real scoring upside. The Blitz projects this total at 52.1 points, and the Colts’ pace of play with Rivers hasn’t slowed compared to season norms. While last week’s passing line looks modest, Rivers still pushed the ball downfield with eight throws of 10-plus yards and nine targets to running backs, hinting at a more aggressive approach. Shane Steichen reinforced that the game plan can shift week to week. San Francisco’s defense just allowed 24 points and 6.2 yards per play to Tennessee, while Brock Purdy looked sharp coming out of the bye. The 49ers are also 6-3-1 to the over at home or indoors, where offensive efficiency tends to spike.
Once a season, touchdown bettors have to take a swing on 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and this might be the spot. The offense is back to full strength, Brock Purdy looked refreshed coming out of the bye, and Juszczyk is another week removed from a rib injury. He logged a season-high 46 offensive snaps last week and hasn’t scored since Week 3, which helps keep the price in check. Juszczyk remains a strong pass-catching option who can still win on a wheel route, and he has seven games with double-digit receiving yards this season. Indoors against an overrated defense that may not account for the fullback near the goal line, this sets up as a worthwhile long-shot look. A half-unit.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.4 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. With a remarkable 26.5% Red Zone Target% (100th percentile) this year, Christian McCaffrey ranks as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.. Christian McCaffrey has accumulated a massive 19.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not sound too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in football this year.. The 49ers defense has been gouged for the most receiving TDs in the NFL to TEs: 0.64 per game this year.
The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.. The leading projections forecast Michael Pittman to total 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.. Michael Pittman is positioned as one of the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 4.5 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in football this year.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).
The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.
The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in football this year.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.4 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. Brock Purdy grades out as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a fantastic 69.1% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 86th percentile.. Brock Purdy ranks as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 8.04 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 86th percentile.
A running game script is suggested by the 49ers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have only 125.5 total plays run: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.. Indianapolis's defense ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year when it comes to forcing interceptions, compiling 0.88 per game.
The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in football this year.. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's unit has been dreadful this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL.
The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.. The leading projections forecast Michael Pittman to total 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.. Michael Pittman has been an integral part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 23.8% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
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