Commanders @ Vikings Picks & Props

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off. The projections expect Deebo Samuel Sr. to total 7.6 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile among wideouts. Deebo Samuel Sr. has been much more involved in his team's passing attack this year (25.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.6%). Deebo Samuel Sr.'s receiving skills have improved this season, accumulating 4.9 adjusted receptions vs just 3.6 last season. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 63.6% to 79.0%.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. With an elite 97.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. The model projects Justin Jefferson to notch 10.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs. This year, the deficient Washington Commanders pass defense has conceded a massive 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 5th-biggest rate in the league. The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. The leading projections forecast T.J. Hockenson to earn 5.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile among tight ends. With a terrific 3.4 adjusted catches per game (78th percentile) this year, T.J. Hockenson rates among the top pass-game TEs in the NFL. T.J. Hockenson's 79.6% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates an impressive growth in his receiving ability over last season's 68.8% rate. The Commanders pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.6%) versus tight ends this year (79.6%).

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. Our trusted projections expect Aaron Jones to notch 4.8 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs. Aaron Jones's 21.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in football: 96th percentile for running backs. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Washington's safety corps has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off. In this week's contest, Zach Ertz is predicted by the projections to position himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.0 targets. Zach Ertz's 46.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 39.0. With an impressive 3.8 adjusted receptions per game (86th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz stands among the best pass-game TEs in the league. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off. Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s 18.6% Route% this year shows a meaningful boost in his air attack volume over last year's 6.6% rate. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

Josh Oliver has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Jordan Addison has gone over 3.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Terry McLaurin has gone over 3.5 in 3 of his last 9 games.

Jeremy McNichols has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Jalen Nailor has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Noah Brown has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 4 games.

Treylon Burks has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 7 games.

John Bates has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Jordan Mason has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.