Saints @ Buccaneers Picks & Props

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints. Juwan Johnson's 72.7% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a substantial decrease in his pass-catching skills over last season's 76.7% rate. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints. Chris Olave's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 73.7% to 65.6%. This year, the fierce Buccaneers defense has conceded a measly 62.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 9th-smallest rate in the league. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

This week's spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are a massive favorite by 7.5 points. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to pass on 53.1% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the New Orleans Saints, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.4 per game) this year.

This week's spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are a massive favorite by 7.5 points. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to pass on 53.1% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the New Orleans Saints, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.4 per game) this year.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 131.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week. The predictive model expects Cade Otton to earn 4.7 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to TEs. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year. With an excellent 3.6 adjusted catches per game (83rd percentile) this year, Cade Otton stands as one of the leading pass-game TEs in football. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL.

The Saints are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are projected by the model to run 65.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. The Saints have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game. The Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year. This year, the porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered a staggering 91.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the worst rate in the league.

Sterling Shepard has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Tez Johnson has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Mason Tipton has gone over 2.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Rachaad White has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Chris Godwin Jr. has gone over 3.5 in 2 of his last 6 games.

Devaughn Vele has gone over 3.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.