Bengals @ Ravens Picks & Props

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.4% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 65.5% red zone pass rate. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 129.7 total plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.4% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 65.5% red zone pass rate. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 129.7 total plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.4% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 65.5% red zone pass rate. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 129.7 total plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week. Our trusted projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 40.1 passes in this contest, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.

The model projects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. Lamar Jackson has been one of the best touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 1.67 per game while ranking in the 86th percentile. This year, the deficient Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for a colossal 2.27 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the biggest rate in football. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Cincinnati's LB corps has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.

The model projects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. While Zay Flowers has accounted for 15.4% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Baltimore's offense near the end zone in this week's game at 21.8%. Zay Flowers's 64.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 91st percentile for WRs. Zay Flowers's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 65.7% to 76.4%. The Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) versus wide receivers this year (67.9%).

The model projects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. With a sizeable 25.6% Red Zone Target Rate (94th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews rates as one of the TEs with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL. Mark Andrews's 36.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 83rd percentile for TEs. With a fantastic ratio of 0.42 per game through the air (91st percentile), Mark Andrews has been as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to TEs this year. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered the most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 1.18 per game this year.

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.4% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 65.5% red zone pass rate. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 129.7 total plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.

The model projects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. When talking about air yards, Derrick Henry grades out in the towering 78th percentile among RBs this year, averaging an astounding 1.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards). This year, the porous Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered a staggering 87.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the most touchdowns through the air in football to running backs: 0.55 per game this year. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Cincinnati's LB corps has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.