The return of Joe Burrow will give a significant boost to the Bengals passing game which bodes well for third-year WR Andre Iosivas. Iosivas logged has more than 60 receiving yards in two of his last three games. He reeled in four of seven targets for 61 yards last week with All-Pro wideout Ja'Marr Chase serving a suspension. Chase is back this week but No. 2 WR Tee Higgins is out, which means another high-volume opportunity for Iosivas. The Ravens are 24th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (231.6) and their defense will likely focus on stopping Chase. That should open things up for Iosivas.
Lamar Jackson hasn't been running with his usual gusto and playing through multiple lower body injuries might be the reason. Since coming back from a hamstring injury he has rushed for less than 15 yards in three of four games while averaging just 2.8 yards per carry over that span. His latest ailment is a toe injury that caused him to miss practice on Monday. Cincinnati has a brutal defense but does a good job at containing QBs on the ground, allowing just 14.9 rushing yards per game to the position. And with the Bengals 29th in the league in pressure rate, Jackson won't be flushed out of the pocket.
Derrick Henry is sixth in the NFL in rushing yards (871) and has logged 19+ carries in five of his last six contests. Temperatures will be just above freezing in Baltimore on Thursday and the 247-pound bruiser thrives in cold-weather games. In addition, the Ravens are 7-point home favorites so there's a strong chance that they will play with a positive game script. Expect them to feed Henry the ball against a Bengals defense that is 30th in success rate and DVOA against the run.
Henry has scored a touchdown in only six games so far but in three of those outings, he’s gone for two TDs. Lamar is dinged up and not running as much. Henry gets the goal line carries.
If spread and total say anything, it’s that we’ll see plenty of passing from the Bengals. And you don’t throw Joe Burrow back into action to run the ball. Burrow makes his first start since Week 2, and I expect some rust on the Bengals star QB. He will be without Tee Higgins and we could see him forcing deeper shots to Chase, who will draw double coverage. The Ravens pass rush has ramped up and that chaos is generating turnovers.
Cincy backup Joe Flacco averaged 41.7 pass attempts across his six starts with the club, and he topped 40 in four of those games. Burrow also aired it out 39 times in Week 5 against Baltimore and another 56 times in their Week 10 rematch last year. With the Bengals a sizable road underdog, I'm expecting Cincy leaning on Burrow and the vertical attack early and often in the Thursday nightcap.
Tee Higgins is out for Week 12, Joe Burrow is likely back, and this is a strong price on the Bengals’ WR2 against a Baltimore defense that’s faced Tyrod Taylor, Dillon Gabriel/Shedeur Sanders, and JJ McCarthy in its last three games. Andrei Iosivas led all Bengals pass catchers last week in targets, yards, air yards, snap share, and route share. That came without Ja’Marr Chase, who returns from his one-game suspension, but Iosivas steps into the Tee Higgins role and should see plenty of single coverage. The last four matchups between these teams have produced 253 total points, and in a game with a 50-point total and Burrow back, getting a top-two Bengals pass catcher at +250 or better is an automatic buy for me.
This is a great spot for Andrews to bounce back against the league's worst defense at defending the tight end position. Cincinnati is allowing a league-high 87.4 receiving yards per game to the position which is a ridiculous 17 more yards than the next closest team. They've allowed two seperate TEs to go for 100+ yards in their last three games. Andrews has underwhemled this season but is still second on the team in targets. He's topped 37.5 yards in seven of his last eight games against the Bengals.
The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.
At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.1% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 65.5% red zone pass rate.. Right now, the 3rd-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Ravens are forecasted by the projections to call 65.3 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most on the slate this week.. While Zay Flowers has accounted for 15.4% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Baltimore's offense near the end zone in this week's game at 21.7%.. Zay Flowers's 64.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 91st percentile for WRs.. Zay Flowers's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 65.7% to 76.4%.. The Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) versus wide receivers this year (67.9%).
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Ravens are forecasted by the projections to call 65.3 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most on the slate this week.. With a sizeable 25.6% Red Zone Target Rate (94th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews rates as one of the TEs with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL.. Mark Andrews's 36.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 83rd percentile for TEs.. With a fantastic ratio of 0.42 per game through the air (91st percentile), Mark Andrews has been as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to TEs this year.. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered the most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 1.18 per game this year.
At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.1% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week.. Right now, the 3rd-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. Our trusted projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 39.9 passes in this contest, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.
The Ravens are a big 7-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their downs: the lowest rate among all teams this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.0 plays per game.. Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to attempt 30.6 passes this week, on balance: the 3rd-fewest among all QBs.. The Ravens O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.
As it relates to pass protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Cincinnati Bengals grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year.. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Baltimore's collection of safeties has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Ravens are forecasted by the projections to call 65.3 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most on the slate this week.. When talking about air yards, Derrick Henry grades out in the towering 78th percentile among RBs this year, averaging an astounding 1.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. This year, the feeble Bengals defense has yielded a staggering 44.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-worst in the league.. This year, the anemic Bengals defense has yielded the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing RBs: a monstrous 7.63 yards.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Cincinnati's LB corps has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.
At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.1% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week.. Right now, the 3rd-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.. In this game, Ja'Marr Chase is expected by the projections to finish in the 100th percentile among wideouts with 13.1 targets.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Ravens are forecasted by the projections to call 65.3 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects Zay Flowers to notch 8.4 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs.. With a top-tier 28.8% Target Rate (95th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers has been among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the league.. Zay Flowers profiles as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 60.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.. The Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) versus wide receivers this year (67.9%).
At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.1% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week.. Right now, the 3rd-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.. The model projects Mike Gesicki to garner 5.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.
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