Cleveland @ Detroit Picks & Props

At a -10-point disadvantage, the Browns are heavy underdogs this week, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 67.2% of their downs: the greatest rate on the slate this week. The most plays in football have been called by the Browns since the start of last season (a massive 62.2 per game on average). The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.

At a -10-point disadvantage, the Browns are heavy underdogs this week, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 67.2% of their downs: the greatest rate on the slate this week. The most plays in football have been called by the Browns since the start of last season (a massive 62.2 per game on average). The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.

The model projects the Lions to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The model projects Sam LaPorta to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack near the goal line in this contest (19.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played). When it comes to air yards, Sam LaPorta ranks in the lofty 92nd percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating a colossal 39.0 per game.

The model projects the Lions to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Amon-Ra St. Brown has accrued a staggering 69.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among wide receivers. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 87.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a material boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 83.6% figure.

The model projects the Lions to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. While Jahmyr Gibbs has accounted for 71.4% of his offense's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Detroit's run game near the goal line this week at 43.4%. Jahmyr Gibbs's 95.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a noteable improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 82.3% rate.

The model projects the Lions to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Jared Goff's throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 72.0% to 80.6%. With an impressive rate of 1.75 per game (92nd percentile), Jared Goff ranks among the best touchdown throwers in the NFL this year.