Buffalo's defense was fantastic last week but was torched in Week 1 and ranked last in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate after Week 9 last year. Buffalo's secondary is extremely banged-up at CB and surrendered 143 receiving yards and a TD to Zay Flowers in Week 1. That weakness could be exploited by the Dolphins and WR Tyreek Hill. Hill racked up 1,799 receiving yards and 13 TDs in 2023, before being limited to six scores last year. The five-time All-Pro is still a dangerous weapon which he proved last week by hauling in six catches for 109 yards. Hill had a 47-yard reception that he likely would have scored on if Tua Tagovailoa hadn't underthrown the ball.
Cook scored 21 touchdowns (19 rushing and two receiving) in 19 total games last season. This year, he has rushed for 176 yards and three scores through two games. The Dolphins are last in the league in defensive EPA and have surrendered more than 30 points in back-to-back games against the Colts and Patriots. If they couldn't stop those middling offenses, they won't be able to stop a highly-efficient Bills attack. Cook's "anytime TD" price is juiced to -170 but with the Bills RB punching it into the endzone in 14 of his last 17 games (82.4%), that's still great value on an implied probability of 63%.
Allen has thrown just one interception in his last 10 games. The reigning NFL MVP does a great job of limiting risky throws and he shouldn't be airing it out much in this game since the Bills are 11.5-point home favorites. Miami ranks last in the league in coverage grade per PFF while also ranking last in defensive dropback EPA. The Dolphins have yet to intercept a pass this year and they have the sixth-fewest passes defended (6).
Achane saw a team-high 10 targets last week, reeling in eight of them for 92 yards. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel loves to use his running backs in the passing game and Achane racked up 78 receptions last year. It's worth noting that Achane averaged just 1.8 receptions per game in the six contests where Tua Tagovailoa was sidelined but averaged 6.1 receptions per game with Miami's franchise QB under center. Achane saw a ton of usage against the Bills last year, grabbing seven receptions in Week 2 and piling up eight catches in Week 9. Buffalo's defense has been susceptible to pass-catching backs and the Dolphins should be throwing a ton in this game since they are 11.5-point road underdogs.
Buffalo has two talented tight ends but Kincaid is being utilized the most in the passing game, both in terms of routes and targets and Dawson Knox has bad drops in Week 2. Kincaid has caught 8 of 10 balls his way, putting up 48 yards in Week 1 and 37 yards in Week 2. Miami has given up yards to tight ends through two games and Kincaid had 30+ receiving yards in both matchups with Miami last year. Projections for TNF sit as high as 36 yards.
Through two games, the Dolphins have gotten destroyed through the air against opposing running backs, allowing 146 total receiving yards to Colts' and Patriots' RBs. They're allowing these short passes for big gains as well – an average of 13.2 yards per catch – so don't be shocked if all it takes is one catch. Cook has had success topping this mark vs Miami, reaching at least 16 receiving yards in his last four games against them.
Allen has rushed for 89 yards through two games, and the Dolphins have allowed opposing quarterbacks to pile up 57 yards on the ground after two weeks. This is also a short turnaround for a reeling Miami defense that has allowed the highest EPA per play while ranking fifth last in DVOA and third last in PFF defense grade.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season.. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70%) to wideouts since the start of last season (70.0%).. When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's LB corps has been excellent since the start of last season, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.
At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 66.3% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.. The model projects the Dolphins to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 61.2% red zone pass rate.. Since the start of last season, the porous Bills defense has conceded a staggering 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 9th-worst rate in the league.
At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 66.3% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.. The model projects the Dolphins to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 61.2% red zone pass rate.. De'Von Achane has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.0% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has been in the 99th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) with a superb 23.4 figure since the start of last season.
At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 66.3% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.. The model projects the Dolphins to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 61.2% red zone pass rate.. With an extraordinary 21.7% Red Zone Target Rate (83rd percentile) since the start of last season, Tyreek Hill rates among the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in football.. Tyreek Hill has compiled a monstrous 89.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among wide receivers.
With an elite 14.3% Red Zone Target Share (84th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid places as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.. When it comes to air yards, Dalton Kincaid ranks in the towering 94th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a colossal 43.0 per game.. Dalton Kincaid rates in the 92nd percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 41.0 mark since the start of last season.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season.. Dalton Kincaid's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 62.0% to 81.4%.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season.. Josh Allen's throwing precision has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.7% to 68.5%.. With an exceptional ratio of 1.67 per game (79th percentile), Josh Allen stands among the best touchdown throwers in the league since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins defense has surrendered a colossal 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.. When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's LB corps has been excellent since the start of last season, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.
With an impressive 7.1% Red Zone Target Share (78th percentile) this year, James Cook has been among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the league.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season.. James Cook's 100.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a material progression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 84.7% mark.. With a remarkable rate of 0.11 per game through the air (80th percentile), James Cook has been among the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among RBs since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the deficient Dolphins defense has surrendered a massive 0.21 TDs through the air per game to opposing RBs: the 9th-biggest rate in the league.
At a -12-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 66.6% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.. In this game, Tua Tagovailoa is projected by the model to have the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.7. . With a remarkable rate of 259.0 adjusted passing yards per game (90th percentile), Tua Tagovailoa places as one of the best QBs in the league since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the porous Bills defense has conceded a staggering 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 9th-worst rate in the league.
At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 66.3% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.. The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
An extreme running game script is indicated by the Bills being a heavy 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to pass on 52.0% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The 9th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Buffalo Bills since the start of last season (just 56.1 per game on average).
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