Miami @ Buffalo Picks & Props

At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 66.3% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week. The model projects the Dolphins to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 61.2% red zone pass rate. Since the start of last season, the porous Bills defense has conceded a staggering 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 9th-worst rate in the league.

When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70%) to wideouts since the start of last season (70.0%). When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's LB corps has been excellent since the start of last season, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.

At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 66.3% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week. The model projects the Dolphins to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 61.2% red zone pass rate. De'Von Achane has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.0% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among RBs. De'Von Achane has been in the 99th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) with a superb 23.4 figure since the start of last season.

At a -12-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 66.6% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week. The model projects the Dolphins to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 61.2% red zone pass rate. Since the start of last season, the porous Bills defense has conceded a staggering 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 9th-worst rate in the league.

With an elite 14.3% Red Zone Target Share (84th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid places as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league. When it comes to air yards, Dalton Kincaid ranks in the towering 94th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a colossal 43.0 per game. Dalton Kincaid rates in the 92nd percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 41.0 mark since the start of last season. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season. Dalton Kincaid's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 62.0% to 81.4%.

At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 66.3% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week. The model projects the Dolphins to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 61.2% red zone pass rate. With an extraordinary 21.7% Red Zone Target Rate (83rd percentile) since the start of last season, Tyreek Hill rates among the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in football. Tyreek Hill has compiled a monstrous 89.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among wide receivers.

When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season. Josh Allen's throwing precision has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.7% to 68.5%. With an exceptional ratio of 1.67 per game (79th percentile), Josh Allen stands among the best touchdown throwers in the league since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins defense has surrendered a colossal 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-biggest rate in the league. When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's LB corps has been excellent since the start of last season, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.

With an impressive 7.1% Red Zone Target Share (78th percentile) this year, James Cook has been among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the league. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season. James Cook's 100.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a material progression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 84.7% mark. With a remarkable rate of 0.11 per game through the air (80th percentile), James Cook has been among the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among RBs since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, the deficient Dolphins defense has surrendered a massive 0.21 TDs through the air per game to opposing RBs: the 9th-biggest rate in the league.