Vikings @ Cowboys Picks & Props

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.40 seconds per snap. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Jake Ferguson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (77.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (67.0%). Jake Ferguson's 5.7 adjusted catches per game this year indicates a material boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 4.1 rate.

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. With an extraordinary 96.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson places among the wide receivers with the most usage in football.

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. With a fantastic 3.3 adjusted receptions per game (79th percentile) this year, T.J. Hockenson ranks among the leading tight ends in the pass game in the NFL.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.40 seconds per snap. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Javonte Williams's 57.4% Route Participation% this year indicates a material boost in his passing attack utilization over last year's 44.1% figure. Javonte Williams comes in as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging an impressive 2.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.40 seconds per snap. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect George Pickens to total 8.2 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts. George Pickens's receiving talent has improved this year, compiling 6.0 adjusted catches vs just 4.2 last year.

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 91st percentile among RBs with 4.1 targets.

KaVontae Turpin has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Jordan Addison has gone over 3.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Ryan Flournoy has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Jalen Nailor has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Jordan Mason has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

CeeDee Lamb has gone over 6.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.