Titans @ 49ers Picks & Props

The projections expect the Titans to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.8%) versus tight ends this year (70.8%).

With a 12.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach. The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. George Kittle's receiving performance has worsened this year, compiling a measly 4.2 adjusted receptions compared to 5.3 last year. The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best DE corps in football this year when it comes to pass rush.

The Titans are a massive 12.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 61.0% of their plays: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in football. Tony Pollard's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 74.2% to 83.8%. The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (87.7%) vs. running backs this year (87.7%).

With a 12.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach. The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Jauan Jennings has been a much smaller piece of his offense's passing offense this season (20.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (25.3%). Jauan Jennings's receiving performance has declined this year, notching just 3.6 adjusted catches vs 5.2 last year.

The Titans are a massive 12.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 61.0% of their plays: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in football. The 49ers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.4%) versus WRs this year (67.4%). The San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential target this season (81.0% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (68.1%). In this contest, Christian McCaffrey is expected by the model to land in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 6.8 targets. Christian McCaffrey ranks as one of the best running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 6.1 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 100th percentile. Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 80.7% to 85.3%.

Elic Ayomanor has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Chig Okonkwo has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Ricky Pearsall has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 9 games.

Van Jefferson has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Tyjae Spears has gone over 3.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Brian Robinson Jr. has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Demarcus Robinson has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.