Bills @ Patriots Picks & Props

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year. Stefon Diggs's 46.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 53.8. Stefon Diggs's receiving talent has worsened this season, compiling a mere 4.6 adjusted receptions compared to 5.7 last season. This year, the imposing Bills defense has allowed a paltry 62.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 10th-lowest rate in football.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week. Khalil Shakir's pass-catching performance diminished this year, accumulating a measly 4.1 adjusted receptions vs 5.1 last year. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week. James Cook's 60.7% snap rate this season marks a noteworthy growth in his offensive usage over last season's 50.0% mark. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week. Dalton Kincaid's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 43.0. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year. This year, the daunting Buffalo Bills defense has yielded a measly 77.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 6th-best rate in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year. Hunter Henry's 38.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 44.2. Hunter Henry's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 75.1% to 70.6%. This year, the formidable Bills defense has given up a measly 67.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.

Keon Coleman has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Ty Johnson has gone over 1.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Gabe Davis has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 7 games.

Rhamondre Stevenson has gone over 1.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Mack Hollins has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Kayshon Boutte has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

DeMario Douglas has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Austin Hooper has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Jackson Hawes has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Dawson Knox has gone over 1.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Joshua Palmer has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.