De'Von Achane has proven just as capable a receiver as a ball carrier. He’s drawn the second-highest target share among RBs (22.1%) and is running the fourth-most routes for the position, averaging just shy of 30 yards through the air per game.
In the touchdown market, I have buy-points set for all the big names. Josh Allen is -120 for me—any time I can get better than that, I’m in. Last week, he opened at +110 and closed around -120 to -125, and this TD line has been as short as -165 earlier this year. Allen ran for two touchdowns and threw for another last week, marking the 47th time he’s done both in a game—a new NFL record. With the Bills using their own version of the tush push and still chasing the Patriots for the division lead, Allen isn’t in a spot to slow down. He has four touchdowns over his last two games.
Khalil Shakir has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.9% this year, which places him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.. The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. Khalil Shakir grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a stellar 81.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.. Khalil Shakir ranks in the 80th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an excellent 0.30 per game.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest level in football vs. the Dolphins defense this year (77.8% Adjusted Completion%).
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. James Cook's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 84.6% to 92.9%.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest level in football vs. the Dolphins defense this year (77.8% Adjusted Completion%).
At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are enormous underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.3% red zone pass rate.. While Greg Dulcich has garnered 2.1% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Miami's offense near the goal line in this week's game at 8.5%.. Greg Dulcich's 100.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a noteworthy growth in his receiving proficiency over last year's 47.9% rate.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are forecasted by the model to call just 60.2 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Dolphins this year (a mere 52.4 per game on average).. The predictive model expects Tua Tagovailoa to throw 31.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.9 per game) this year.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. Josh Allen's 70.5% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a remarkable improvement in his throwing accuracy over last year's 64.7% mark.. Josh Allen rates as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 8.35 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 94th percentile.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest level in football vs. the Dolphins defense this year (77.8% Adjusted Completion%).. When it comes to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Miami's collection of DEs has been very bad this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are forecasted by the model to call just 60.2 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Dolphins this year (a mere 52.4 per game on average).. The predictive model expects Tua Tagovailoa to throw 31.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.9 per game) this year.. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
Our trusted projections expect Khalil Shakir to garner 6.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to WRs.. Khalil Shakir has been a big part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 21.5% this year, which ranks in the 81st percentile when it comes to WRs.. The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. Khalil Shakir grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a stellar 81.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.3%) vs. wide receivers this year (68.3%).
At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are enormous underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. While Greg Dulcich has received 4.3% of his offense's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be much more involved in Miami's pass game in this game at 10.0%.. Greg Dulcich's 100.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a noteworthy growth in his receiving proficiency over last year's 47.9% rate.. Greg Dulcich is positioned as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in football among TEs, averaging a fantastic 8.98 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 76th percentile.
At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are enormous underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. In this game, De'Von Achane is forecasted by the model to rank in the 99th percentile among running backs with 7.6 targets.. When it comes to air yards, De'Von Achane ranks in the towering 93rd percentile among running backs this year, averaging a striking 5.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. De'Von Achane's 34.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 22.4.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. James Cook's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 84.6% to 92.9%.. This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has allowed a massive 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 6th-most in the NFL.. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (89.5%) vs. RBs this year (89.5%).. When it comes to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Miami's collection of DEs has been very bad this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.
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