San Francisco @ Seattle Picks & Props

San Francisco should take a big step back on offense, with three receivers injured — including Brandon Aiyuk — and Deebo Samuel no longer with the team. There’s plenty to like about this Seahawks offense, so I'm taking Seattle to prevail at home. 

Let’s be honest — -150 isn’t a bad price for a Christian McCaffrey touchdown if he’s truly back to full health. When he was rolling over the last two seasons, his anytime TD odds routinely closed shorter than -200. Kyle Shanahan will likely give CMC a full workload to prove he's all the way back, and that includes goal-line touches. He remains the focal point of this offense in scoring position. Seattle could come out flat offensively with Sam Darnold under center, which gives added value to the 49ers in first TD markets as well. The Seahawks were stronger against the pass than the run last season, which only helps McCaffrey’s case. It’s a full-unit play for me at +390 — and I’d consider the anytime in TD parlay with James Conner.

Charbonnet sits behind Kenneth Walker on the depth chart, but Walker is working his way back from a foot injury and that allowed Charbonnet to shine in preseason work. Seattle has a new run-heavy offense under OC Klint Kubiak and Week 1 projections range from 8.3 to 9.8 carries from Charbonnet with his yardage forecast at 36 yards or higher. The Niners got bullied on the ground last season. Wanna spice this one up? Take Charbonnet for 10+ rush attempts at +320 in the milestone markets at bet365.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 54.0% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 124.2 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers last year (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).. In this week's game, Brock Purdy is projected by the projections to total the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.3.

Sam Darnold comes in as one of the leading passers in the NFL last year, averaging an excellent 256.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.. Sam Darnold comes in as one of the most effective QBs in football last year, averaging an outstanding 7.98 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 85th percentile.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 54.0% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 124.2 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers last year (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).. In this week's game, Brock Purdy is projected by the projections to total the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.3. . The Seahawks safeties grade out as the 10th-best safety corps in the league last year in defending receivers.

In this week's contest, Kenneth Walker is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 93rd percentile among RBs with 3.8 targets.. Kenneth Walker has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 14.0% last year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among running backs.. With an impressive 29.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (97th percentile) last year, Kenneth Walker ranks among the top RB receiving threats in the league.. The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been torched for the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (88.2%) vs. running backs last year (88.2%).. The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus RBs last year, conceding 7.11 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the NFL.

The predictive model expects Jauan Jennings to accrue 7.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. With an exceptional 25.3% Target% (87th percentile) last year, Jauan Jennings has been as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in football.. Jauan Jennings has compiled a colossal 80.0 air yards per game last year: 86th percentile when it comes to WRs.. Jauan Jennings comes in as one of the best wide receivers in the league last year, averaging an exceptional 67.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.

The projections expect the Seattle Seahawks offensive gameplan to lean 5.5% more towards the run game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.. The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have just 124.2 plays on offense run: the lowest number on the slate this week.. The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Seahawks last year (a lowly 56.3 per game on average).. Opposing QBs have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense last year: 5th-fewest in the league.

The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 46.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Brock Purdy isn't afraid to run the ball, making up 15.4% of his offense's rush attempts last year, putting him in the 76th percentile among quarterbacks.. Last year, the formidable Seattle Seahawks run defense has conceded a meager 4.75 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing rushing attacks: the 25th-smallest rate in the NFL.. The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL last year when it comes to defending the run.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 124.2 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers last year (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).