Atlanta @ Indianapolis Picks & Props

A throwing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -6.5-point underdog this week. The Colts defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year. With a sizeable 17.2% Red Zone Target Rate (82nd percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts has been as one of the tight ends with the highest volume near the end zone in football. In regards to air yards, Kyle Pitts grades out in the towering 96th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a striking 42.0 per game. Kyle Pitts's 44.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 30.4.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the projections to run 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. When it comes to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Colts profiles as the best in the league this year. Daniel Jones's 67.8% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a substantial improvement in his passing accuracy over last year's 63.4% mark. This year, the imposing Atlanta Falcons run defense has surrendered a measly 0.62 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing teams: the 7th-best rate in football. The Falcons cornerbacks profile as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

A throwing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -6.5-point underdog this week. The Colts defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year. With a high 39.3% Red Zone Target Share (99th percentile) this year, Drake London has been among the WRs with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL. Drake London has accrued a colossal 102.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs. Drake London slots into the 97th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 77.3 mark this year.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the projections to run 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. When it comes to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Colts profiles as the best in the league this year.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the projections to run 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. With an elite 7.7% Red Zone Target Share (76th percentile) this year, Jonathan Taylor has been as one of the RB receiving threats with the highest volume near the goal line in the league. When it comes to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Colts profiles as the best in the league this year. Jonathan Taylor's 93.1% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a noteworthy gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 56.7% rate. Jonathan Taylor grades out in the 85th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an outstanding 0.18 per game.

A throwing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -6.5-point underdog this week. The Colts defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year. When it comes to air yards, Bijan Robinson grades out in the lofty 95th percentile among RBs this year, averaging a colossal 7.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards). Bijan Robinson's 32.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 21.9. The Falcons offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

A throwing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -6.5-point underdog this week. The Colts defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year. The Falcons offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board. The opposing side have run for the 9th-fewest TDs in the NFL (0.67 per game) against the Colts defense this year. As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Indianapolis's unit has been terrible this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.