Jonathan Taylor can set history this weekend against the Falcons. His next rushing score ties him with Edgerrin James for the most in Colts' history, and another would leave him alone atop the record book.
And getting him the ball will be the best path to victory for Indianapolis against a tough Atlanta pass rush and secondary. The Falcons rank sixth in opponent completion rate, but just 20th in yards allowed per carry and 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game.
Christian McCaffrey ran for two touchdowns and posted 201 total yards when the 49ers beat the Falcons, and Taylor should post strong numbers as well. Look for him to punch it in twice for the fifth time in eight games.
This Indianapolis defense has problems with tight ends, allowing the second most yardage to TEs and five touchdowns to the position. The Colts don’t have any quality coverage linebackers, and the safeties sit below average in their coverage ratings at PFF. Pitts, who is currently Atlanta’s highest rated receiver versus man coverage, sees his Week 10 player projections ranging from 42 yards to closer to 50 yards receiving. Before coming in just short of his Week 9 prop total, Pitts has gone Over his receiving bar in three of the four previous outings.
Daniel Jones had a setback last week, but Alec Pierce didn’t—he went for 115 yards on six catches. Pierce played more snaps than Michael Pittman and is averaging 3.4 catches for 71.6 yards this year, though his lack of touchdowns has kept his price low in Week 10. His production is way up from last season, and with his current volume, finding the end zone feels like a matter of time. I’d play Pierce to +220, and Josh Downs at +260 or better is also worth a look in Germany this Sunday morning. If the Dolphins can hang 34 on the Falcons, the Colts should have no trouble moving the ball.
Both teams have lived out of suitcases in the past month. This will be back-to-back travel games for the Falcons and Colts and their third away game in the past four weeks. They could be a little worse for wear when things kick off at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday. Both teams want to anchor their offense in the run, with the Colts fueling their play action playbook with plenty of RB Jonathan Taylor and Atlanta boasting a two-head beast at RB with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Falcons’ offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has been criticized for the predictability of his offense, which ranks 24th in EPA per play. Atlanta’s defense is the key to this Under. The Falcons play a “bend but don’t break” style, with zone-heavy schemes keeping everything in front of it. Atlanta doesn’t give up many big plays and rates among the league elite in pass defense.
Given the tightness of this spread, bookies expect Anthony Richardson to get right and be the quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts when Week 10 rolls around. Indy's other option is Daniel Jones, who should warrant a spread closer to the field goal. The Atlanta Falcons seem to have their QB1 in Michael Penix Jr. after his strong finish to the season. Atlanta scored 24, 34, and 38 points in its final three games, showcasing plenty of firepower around Penix. I'm rolling with Atlanta in Berlin.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the projections to run 66.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.. With an elite 7.7% Red Zone Target Share (76th percentile) this year, Jonathan Taylor has been as one of the RB receiving threats with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.. When it comes to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Colts profiles as the best in the league this year.. Jonathan Taylor's 93.1% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a noteworthy gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 56.7% rate.. Jonathan Taylor grades out in the 85th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an outstanding 0.18 per game.
A throwing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -6.5-point underdog this week.. The Colts defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.. With a high 39.3% Red Zone Target Share (99th percentile) this year, Drake London has been among the WRs with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL.. Drake London has accrued a colossal 102.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs.. Drake London slots into the 97th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 77.3 mark this year.
At the present time, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (58.9% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Falcons.. The model projects the Falcons to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Bijan Robinson's 81.5% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a material decrease in his receiving prowess over last year's 87.3% rate.. This year, the imposing Indianapolis Colts defense has given up a feeble 75.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.
This week's line implies a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 6.5 points.. Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Falcons, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a mere 27.4 per game) this year.. This year, the stout Atlanta Falcons defense has conceded a puny 175.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the fewest in football.. This year, the imposing Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered a feeble 65.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.
At the present time, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (58.9% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Falcons.. The model projects the Falcons to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
A throwing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -6.5-point underdog this week.. The Colts defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.. The projections expect Drake London to total 10.6 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.. With an extraordinary 32.6% Target Rate (98th percentile) this year, Drake London has been among the WRs with the highest volume in football.. Drake London has accrued a colossal 102.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs.
This week's line implies a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 6.5 points.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the projections to run 66.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.. The Atlanta defensive ends project as the 8th-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
This week's line implies a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 6.5 points.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the projections to run 66.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.. The Atlanta defensive ends project as the 8th-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
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