Dallas @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

First time head coach Brian Schottenhiemer has way too much working against him in his head coaching debut against possibly the best team in the NFL. The Eagles enter the game on a 10-game home win streak and should be fired up after hanging another Super Bowl banner. Expect Hurts & Co. to take advantage of a Dallas defense that allowed the second-most points per game last season, while a potentially rusty Dak Prescott faces an uphill battle against defense that allowed just 16.6 points per game at home last season. 

Barkley is coming off an incredible year where he rushed for 2,005 yards in the regular season before adding another 499 yards in the playoffs. He'll likely regress this year, especially with backup Will Shipley ready to carve out a bigger role, but he should still  get enough touches to eclipse his rushing yards total against an awful Dallas defense in Week 1. The Cowboys were 31st in the NFL in defensive rush EPA last year while ranking 29th in defensive rush success rate. Barkley rushed for 95+ yards in 15 of 20 total games last year. That includes a  Week 16 contest against Dallas where he rumbled for 167 yards.

DeVonta Smith is a home run hitter – as we saw in the Super Bowl - and takes on a very tender Dallas secondary, with some corners not at 100%. New Dallas DC Matt Eberflus runs a lot of zone coverage and Smith happens to rate among the best receivers vs zone. In 17 total games – regular and postseason – he had at a reception of 20+ yards in 12 of those outings. 

The Eagles are 8-point home favorites on TNF which should mean a negative game script and inflated passing numbers for Prescott. Prescott has been one of the most productive passers in the league when healthy and he threw for 4,516 yards in 2023 before a torn hamstring cut short his season last year. He also finally has a competent No. 2 WR with Dallas adding George Pickens to complement All-Pro Ceedee Lamb.

The tush push will be legal for at least another year which is great news for Hurts who rushed for 19 touchdowns in the regular season and playoffs last year. Philadelphia's offense returns intact so expect plenty of continuity, especially on the O-line which is one of the best units in the NFL. Philly should move the ball at will against a Cowboys D that struggled last year and will be even worse after trading away superstar pass rusher Micah Parsons. Dallas gave up a league-high 10 touchdowns to opposing QBs in 2024 and Hurts has scored a TD in 11 of his last 14 games.

Hurts had a total of 14 rushing touchdowns in 15 games last season, with a score in 10 of them, and added five more rushing touchdowns in four playoff games. He’ll find the end zone to open up the season.

Smith reeled in two TDs in a one-sided win over the Cowboys in Week 17. All in all, Smith finished with nine touchdowns last season (including playoffs) and gets a favorable matchup against the Dallas secondary. Under new DC Matt Eberflus, Dallas will play more zone, which is something Smith thrives against. He ranked 14^th among all WRs versus zone coverage at PFF in 2024. Smith will likely draw coverage from Trevon Diggs, who just returned to full practice this week and isn't 100% healthy.

The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football last year, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier weather in this week's contest.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense last year: 10th-fewest in football.. The Dallas O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all pass game statistics across the board.. Last year, the stout Eagles defense has yielded a puny 61.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 5th-smallest rate in football.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's unit has been fantastic last year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football last year, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier weather in this week's contest.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense last year: 10th-fewest in football.

The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football last year, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier weather in this week's contest.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense last year: 10th-fewest in football.. The Dallas O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all pass game statistics across the board.. Last year, the fierce Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up a meager 188.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the fewest in the league.. Last year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded the least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing offenses: a feeble 6.8 yards.

The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football last year, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier weather in this week's contest.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense last year: 10th-fewest in football.. The Dallas O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all pass game statistics across the board.. With a bad 71.2% Adjusted Catch% (25th percentile) last year, Jake Ferguson places among the least sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to TEs.. With a poor 5.9 adjusted yards per target (15th percentile) last year, Jake Ferguson places among the bottom pass-game TEs in football.

The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football last year, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier weather in this week's contest.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense last year: 10th-fewest in football.. The Dallas O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all pass game statistics across the board.. Last year, the fierce Eagles defense has given up a paltry 124.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-fewest in football.. The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has shown good efficiency against wideouts last year, giving up 7.47 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in football.

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Eagles are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 65.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.. The 3rd-most plays in football have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles last year (a monstrous 60.1 per game on average).. The projections expect A.J. Brown to accrue 8.7 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.. With an impressive 80.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (97th percentile) last year, A.J. Brown ranks among the top WRs in the NFL in football.

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Eagles are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 65.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.. The 3rd-most plays in football have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles last year (a monstrous 60.1 per game on average).. In this contest, Dallas Goedert is projected by the projection model to finish in the 95th percentile among tight ends with 6.2 targets.. Dallas Goedert rates as one of the leading TE receiving threats last year, averaging an excellent 46.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Eagles are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Eagles to run on 50.5% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Eagles are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 65.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.. Jalen Hurts has generated 43.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the biggest marks in football when it comes to quarterbacks (92nd percentile).. The Dallas Cowboys defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks last year, yielding 5.10 adjusted yards-per-carry.

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.70 seconds per play.. The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football last year, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier weather in this week's contest.