Washington @ Tampa Bay props

The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.0% pass rate. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers this year (a staggering 58.9 per game on average). The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may go down. Our trusted projections expect Cade Otton to notch 5.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs. Cade Otton has been a much bigger part of his offense's passing game this year (19.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.7%).

With a 3-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this game, implying more of a focus on running than their normal game plan. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are anticipated by the projection model to run just 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week. Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Washington Commanders, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 28.9 per game) this year. The Washington Commanders pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (63.4%) versus wideouts this year (63.4%). As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Washington's group of LBs has been excellent this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.

With a 3-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this game, implying more of a focus on running than their normal game plan. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are anticipated by the projection model to run just 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week. Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Washington Commanders, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 28.9 per game) this year. The Commanders pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (80.2%) versus running backs this year (80.2%). As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Washington's group of LBs has been excellent this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 56.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 56.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week. Brian Robinson's pass-catching performance tailed off this year, notching a measly 1.4 adjusted catches vs 2.4 last year. Brian Robinson's 83.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a substantial reduction in his pass-catching ability over last season's 90.4% figure.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their usual game plan. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 59.8 plays per game. The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) this year. With a fantastic 4.8 adjusted receptions per game (81st percentile) this year, Terry McLaurin ranks among the top wide receivers in the NFL in football.

Dyami Brown has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Olamide Zaccheaus has gone over 3.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Jalen McMillan has gone over 4.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Austin Ekeler has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Rachaad White has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Sterling Shepard has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Jamison Crowder has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 8 games.