Denver @ Kansas City props

This week's line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Denver's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

This week's line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Broncos, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs. The Broncos have been the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 131.3 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week. Our trusted projections expect Courtland Sutton to garner 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Courtland Sutton ranks in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 62.7 figure this year.

This week's line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points. DeAndre Hopkins's 3.1 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 4.4 mark. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Denver's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

This week's line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Broncos, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs. The Broncos have been the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 131.3 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week. With an impressive 3.2 adjusted catches per game (93rd percentile) this year, Javonte Williams stands among the leading pass-catching RBs in the league. The Chiefs pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86.7%) to RBs this year (86.7%).

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.6% pass rate. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by our trusted projection set to run 66.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 61.0 plays per game. The projections expect Travis Kelce to garner 8.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among tight ends. Travis Kelce is positioned as one of the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging an exceptional 6.4 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.

Lil'Jordan Humphrey has gone over 2.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Noah Gray has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Justin Watson has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Troy Franklin has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Jaleel McLaughlin has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Xavier Worthy has gone over 2.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Devaughn Vele has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Mecole Hardman has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.