Cincinnati @ Cleveland props

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script. The projections expect the Bengals offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.04 seconds per snap. Opposing teams have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in football. Chase Brown's 80.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a material reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year's 93.3% rate. Since the start of last season, the daunting Browns defense has conceded a meager 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 5th-best rate in the league.

The projections expect the Bengals as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Browns, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Right now, the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cleveland Browns. Pierre Strong's 25.6% Route Participation Rate this season illustrates a material gain in his passing attack volume over last season's 10.4% rate. In this week's contest, Pierre Strong is anticipated by the predictive model to slot into the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs with 2.9 targets. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (96.8%) vs. RBs this year (96.8%).

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Browns, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Right now, the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cleveland Browns. The predictive model expects David Njoku to notch 6.9 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends. The predictive model expects David Njoku to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense in this week's contest (22.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.8% in games he has played). David Njoku has been one of the best tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 4.9 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 96th percentile.

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Browns, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Right now, the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cleveland Browns. In this game, Jerry Jeudy is forecasted by the model to finish in the 78th percentile among wideouts with 7.2 targets. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati's collection of safeties has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football.

The projections expect the Bengals as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, Ja'Marr Chase is predicted by the projection model to slot into the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.1 targets. Ja'Marr Chase has been one of the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging a stellar 5.7 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 90th percentile. Ja'Marr Chase's 83.3% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching ability over last year's 71.2% figure. The Cleveland Browns cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst CB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Elijah Moore has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Cedric Tillman has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Andrei Iosivas has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Tee Higgins has gone over 5.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Mike Gesicki has gone over 1.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Zack Moss has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 8 games.

Nick Chubb has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 8 games.