HOU 2.5 o43.0
NYJ -2.5 u43.0
MIA 6.5 o49.5
BUF -6.5 u49.5
DAL 3.0 o51.5
ATL -3.0 u51.5
NO -7.0 o43.5
CAR 7.0 u43.5
LV 7.5 o46.0
CIN -7.5 u46.0
DEN 10.0 o46.5
BAL -10.0 u46.5
WAS -3.5 o44.0
NYG 3.5 u44.0
LAC -2.0 o43.0
CLE 2.0 u43.0
NE 3.5 o38.0
TEN -3.5 u38.0
CHI 1.0 o44.5
ARI -1.0 u44.5
JAC 7.5 o45.5
PHI -7.5 u45.5
LA -1.0 o48.5
SEA 1.0 u48.5
DET -3.0 o48.5
GB 3.0 u48.5
IND 5.0 o46.5
MIN -5.0 u46.5
TB 8.5 o46.0
KC -8.5 u46.0
New England 3rd AFC East2-6
Cincinnati 3rd AFC North3-5

New England @ Cincinnati props

Paycor Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Ja'Lynn Polk Receptions Made Props • New England

J. Polk
wide receiver WR • New England
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.5
Best Odds
Over
-102
Prop
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection
3.5
Best Odds
Over
-102
Projection Rating

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are massive -9-point underdogs. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the worst unit in football last year in pass coverage.

Ja'Lynn Polk

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.5
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.5

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are massive -9-point underdogs. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the worst unit in football last year in pass coverage.

Mike Gesicki Receptions Made Props • Cincinnati

M. Gesicki
tight end TE • Cincinnati
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3
Best Odds
Over
+130
Prop
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection
3
Best Odds
Over
+130
Projection Rating

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide. In this contest, Mike Gesicki is expected by the predictive model to find himself in the 82nd percentile among tight ends with 4.5 targets. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, New England's collection of safeties has been very bad last year, ranking as the 8th-worst in the league.

Mike Gesicki

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide. In this contest, Mike Gesicki is expected by the predictive model to find himself in the 82nd percentile among tight ends with 4.5 targets. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, New England's collection of safeties has been very bad last year, ranking as the 8th-worst in the league.

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions Made Props • Cincinnati

J. Chase
wide receiver WR • Cincinnati
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.8
Best Odds
Under
-115
Prop
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection
4.8
Best Odds
Under
-115
Projection Rating

The Bengals are a huge 9-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have just 123.8 offensive plays run: the fewest among all games this week. The model projects Ja'Marr Chase to be a less important option in his team's air attack this week (20.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (26.3% in games he has played).

Ja'Marr Chase

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.8
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.8

The Bengals are a huge 9-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have just 123.8 offensive plays run: the fewest among all games this week. The model projects Ja'Marr Chase to be a less important option in his team's air attack this week (20.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (26.3% in games he has played).

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Made Props • New England

R. Stevenson
running back RB • New England
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.3
Best Odds
Under
+100

The projections expect the Patriots to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.6% pass rate. The predictive model expects the Patriots to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The 8th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Patriots last year (a mere 56.2 per game on average). The New England O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football last year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Rhamondre Stevenson

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.3
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.3

The projections expect the Patriots to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.6% pass rate. The predictive model expects the Patriots to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The 8th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Patriots last year (a mere 56.2 per game on average). The New England O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football last year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Zack Moss Receptions Made Props • Cincinnati

Z. Moss
running back RB • Cincinnati
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.4
Best Odds
Over
-165
Prop
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection
2.4
Best Odds
Over
-165
Projection Rating

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide. With an exceptional 44.7% Route% (77th percentile) last year, Zack Moss has been among the pass-game running backs with the most usage in the league. In this week's contest, Zack Moss is projected by the projection model to land in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.2 targets. The New England Patriots pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (87.6%) to RBs last year (87.6%).

Zack Moss

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.4
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.4

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide. With an exceptional 44.7% Route% (77th percentile) last year, Zack Moss has been among the pass-game running backs with the most usage in the league. In this week's contest, Zack Moss is projected by the projection model to land in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.2 targets. The New England Patriots pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (87.6%) to RBs last year (87.6%).

Hunter Henry Receptions Made Props • New England

H. Henry
tight end TE • New England
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.2
Best Odds
Over
-140

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are massive -9-point underdogs. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide. This week, Hunter Henry is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets. Hunter Henry rates in the 84th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 33.2 mark last year. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (82.4%) versus TEs last year (82.4%).

Hunter Henry

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.2
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.2

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are massive -9-point underdogs. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide. This week, Hunter Henry is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets. Hunter Henry rates in the 84th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 33.2 mark last year. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (82.4%) versus TEs last year (82.4%).

DeMario Douglas Receptions Made Props • New England

D. Douglas
wide receiver WR • New England
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.6
Best Odds
Over
-114

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are massive -9-point underdogs. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the worst unit in football last year in pass coverage.

DeMario Douglas

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.6
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.6

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are massive -9-point underdogs. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the worst unit in football last year in pass coverage.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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