San Francisco @ Washington props

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have only 125.3 offensive plays run: the fewest among all games this week. The 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are big -14-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders as the most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 67.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year. In this week's game, Terry McLaurin is expected by the model to land in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.0 targets. Terry McLaurin's 56.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 81st percentile for WRs.

With a 14-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the 49ers to pass on 49.6% of their downs: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the 49ers are projected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.2 total plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week. The smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (only 53.1 per game on average). Christian McCaffrey's 30.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 35.1.

The Commanders defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (38.1 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast George Kittle to total 5.6 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends. George Kittle's 49.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 42.2. George Kittle has been one of the top pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an impressive 4.1 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 86th percentile. The Commanders linebackers profile as the 9th-worst LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are big -14-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders as the most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 67.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.

The Commanders defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (38.1 per game) this year. Deebo Samuel has run a route on 90.2% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts. In this week's game, Deebo Samuel is forecasted by the model to position himself in the 81st percentile among wide receivers with 7.0 targets. With a fantastic 4.1 adjusted receptions per game (77th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel has been as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL. Deebo Samuel's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 63.4% to 67.1%.

Curtis Samuel has gone over 4.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Antonio Gibson has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Brandon Aiyuk has gone over 4.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.