Green Bay @ Carolina props

This week's line indicates a passing game script for the Panthers, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Panthers this year (a colossal 63.2 per game on average). The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may go down. This week, Adam Thielen is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 88th percentile among WRs with 8.2 targets. Adam Thielen's receiving skills have been refined this year, accumulating 6.4 adjusted receptions compared to a mere 4.1 last year.

Our trusted projections expect Tucker Kraft to accrue 5.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs. The predictive model expects Tucker Kraft to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack in this week's contest (17.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.1% in games he has played). The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all air attack stats across the board. With a terrific 80.8% Adjusted Completion% (80th percentile) this year, Tucker Kraft has been as one of the most reliable receivers in football when it comes to tight ends. This year, the weak Carolina Panthers pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-highest rate in football.

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Packers, who are favored by 3.5 points. The leading projections forecast the Packers to call the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The Green Bay Packers have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 56.1 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: fewest in the NFL.

The projections expect Aaron Jones to garner 4.3 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs. The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all air attack stats across the board. Aaron Jones rates as one of the top pass-game RBs this year, averaging an exceptional 2.9 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 85th percentile. The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

The model projects the Panthers as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 126.5 plays on offense run: the 4th-fewest among all games this week. Opposing QBs teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Green Bay Packers, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 33.4 per game) this year. The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board. The Green Bay Packers defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

This week's line indicates a passing game script for the Panthers, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Panthers this year (a colossal 63.2 per game on average). The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may go down. Tommy Tremble's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 62.0% to 80.0%.

Jonathan Mingo has gone over 3.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Romeo Doubs has gone over 3.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Malik Heath has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

AJ Dillon has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

DJ Chark Jr. has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.