Buffalo @ Los Angeles props

The Chargers will be forced to start backup quarterback Easton Stick in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This game's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Chargers, who are giant -12.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This year, the poor Buffalo Bills pass defense has been torched for a whopping 71.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

The model projects the Bills to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (38.9 per game) this year. The projections expect Dalton Kincaid to garner 5.2 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 83rd percentile among TEs. Dalton Kincaid has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 17.2% this year, which ranks in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends. With a remarkable 4.7 adjusted catches per game (92nd percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid rates as one of the top tight ends in the pass game in the league.

The Chargers will be forced to start backup quarterback Easton Stick in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This game's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Chargers, who are giant -12.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Gerald Everett's 74.8% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a remarkable gain in his pass-catching skills over last year's 69.2% rate.

With a 12.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach. The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Stefon Diggs's 67.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a noteable drop-off in his receiving skills over last year's 72.7% mark. This year, the stout Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up a paltry 62.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 7th-lowest rate in the NFL. When it comes to linebackers pass-rushing, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been excellent this year, projecting as the 6th-best in football.

The model projects the Bills to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (38.9 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast James Cook to notch 4.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs. James Cook's 17.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 10.4. James Cook's 2.9 adjusted receptions per game this year illustrates a material gain in his receiving skills over last year's 1.3 mark.

The Chargers will be forced to start backup quarterback Easton Stick in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This game's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Chargers, who are giant -12.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually lead to better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced rush volume.

Quentin Johnston has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Dawson Knox has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Khalil Shakir has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Alex Erickson has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 8 games.

Jalen Guyton has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 8 games.

Isaiah Spiller has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 9 games.

Gabe Davis has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Donald Parham Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.