Dallas 1st NFC East12-5
Buffalo 1st AFC East11-6
FOX

Dallas @ Buffalo props

Highmark Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Made Props • Buffalo

D. Kincaid
tight end TE • Buffalo
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.2
Best Odds
Under
+102

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Dalton Kincaid

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.2
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.2

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Tony Pollard Receptions Made Props • Dallas

T. Pollard
running back RB • Dallas
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4
Best Odds
Over
+104

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are forecasted by the predictive model to call 66.1 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cowboys this year (a staggering 61.2 per game on average). Tony Pollard's 59.8% Route% this year illustrates a remarkable improvement in his air attack workload over last year's 44.3% mark. Tony Pollard's 3.8 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a remarkable boost in his receiving skills over last season's 2.4 figure.

Tony Pollard

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are forecasted by the predictive model to call 66.1 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cowboys this year (a staggering 61.2 per game on average). Tony Pollard's 59.8% Route% this year illustrates a remarkable improvement in his air attack workload over last year's 44.3% mark. Tony Pollard's 3.8 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a remarkable boost in his receiving skills over last season's 2.4 figure.

Stefon Diggs Receptions Made Props • Buffalo

S. Diggs
wide receiver WR • Buffalo
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
6.2
Best Odds
Under
-137

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL. Stefon Diggs's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 72.7% to 66.9%. This year, the formidable Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded a mere 58.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Stefon Diggs

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 6.2
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
6.2

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL. Stefon Diggs's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 72.7% to 66.9%. This year, the formidable Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded a mere 58.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Made Props • Dallas

C. Lamb
wide receiver WR • Dallas
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
7.2
Best Odds
Over
-150

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are forecasted by the predictive model to call 66.1 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cowboys this year (a staggering 61.2 per game on average). CeeDee Lamb's receiving performance has gotten a boost this year, compiling 7.3 adjusted catches compared to a mere 6.2 last year. This year, the anemic Buffalo Bills pass defense has given up a massive 72.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the biggest rate in the NFL.

CeeDee Lamb

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 7.2
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
7.2

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are forecasted by the predictive model to call 66.1 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cowboys this year (a staggering 61.2 per game on average). CeeDee Lamb's receiving performance has gotten a boost this year, compiling 7.3 adjusted catches compared to a mere 6.2 last year. This year, the anemic Buffalo Bills pass defense has given up a massive 72.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the biggest rate in the NFL.

Jake Ferguson Receptions Made Props • Dallas

J. Ferguson
tight end TE • Dallas
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.8
Best Odds
Over
-160

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are forecasted by the predictive model to call 66.1 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cowboys this year (a staggering 61.2 per game on average). In this contest, Jake Ferguson is anticipated by the model to position himself in the 90th percentile among tight ends with 5.7 targets. Jake Ferguson's 15.6% Target Rate this season signifies a significant growth in his passing game workload over last season's 4.5% rate.

Jake Ferguson

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.8
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.8

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are forecasted by the predictive model to call 66.1 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cowboys this year (a staggering 61.2 per game on average). In this contest, Jake Ferguson is anticipated by the model to position himself in the 90th percentile among tight ends with 5.7 targets. Jake Ferguson's 15.6% Target Rate this season signifies a significant growth in his passing game workload over last season's 4.5% rate.

James Cook Receptions Made Props • Buffalo

J. Cook
running back RB • Buffalo
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.6
Best Odds
Over
-175

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (67.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bills. The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.3 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The predictive model expects James Cook to garner 3.7 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs. James Cook's 16.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 10.4. James Cook's receiving skills have gotten better this season, totaling 2.9 adjusted catches compared to just 1.3 last season.

James Cook

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.6
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.6

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (67.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bills. The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.3 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The predictive model expects James Cook to garner 3.7 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs. James Cook's 16.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 10.4. James Cook's receiving skills have gotten better this season, totaling 2.9 adjusted catches compared to just 1.3 last season.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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