New York @ Miami props

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Jets are giant underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on passing than their usual game plan. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jets to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 7th-highest rate among all teams this week. Garrett Wilson has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (97.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (86.4%). With a fantastic 5.9 adjusted catches per game (93rd percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson rates as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71%) to WRs this year (71.0%).

This week, Devon Achane is anticipated by the projections to finish in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.7 targets. Devon Achane's 19.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 92nd percentile for running backs. Devon Achane is positioned as one of the top RB receiving threats this year, averaging an excellent 2.6 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Jets are giant underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on passing than their usual game plan. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jets to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 7th-highest rate among all teams this week. This week, Breece Hall is expected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 99th percentile among RBs with 7.0 targets. While Breece Hall has garnered 15.2% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of New York's pass game in this game at 21.5%. Breece Hall's receiving performance has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 4.0 adjusted receptions vs a mere 2.7 last year.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Jets are giant underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on passing than their usual game plan. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jets to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 7th-highest rate among all teams this week. In this game, Tyler Conklin is forecasted by the model to place in the 81st percentile among tight ends with 5.0 targets. With an exceptional 3.6 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin places as one of the best TE receiving threats in the league. This year, the deficient Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 7th-worst rate in the league.

Durham Smythe has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (71.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (27.1%). Durham Smythe's 2.3 adjusted catches per game this year illustrates a noteable progression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 1.2 mark. With a fantastic 77.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (81st percentile) this year, Durham Smythe ranks among the most reliable receivers in football among TEs.

In this week's game, Jaylen Waddle is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.1 targets. With an elite 23.6% Target Rate (85th percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle rates among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football. Jaylen Waddle profiles as one of the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 5.2 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 90th percentile. Jaylen Waddle's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 65.0% to 68.6%.

Raheem Mostert has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Braxton Berrios has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Jeremy Ruckert has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Cedrick Wilson Jr. has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Xavier Gipson has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Allen Lazard has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.