Denver @ Detroit props

A passing game script is implied by the Broncos being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The model projects Javonte Williams to notch 4.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs. The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board. With an outstanding 2.6 adjusted receptions per game (78th percentile) this year, Javonte Williams has been among the best pass-game RBs in football.

The 8th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 60.6 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide. Amon-Ra St. Brown has run a route on 94.3% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs. This week, Amon-Ra St. Brown is anticipated by the model to rank in the 94th percentile among wideouts with 9.4 targets. With a stellar 7.3 adjusted receptions per game (99th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks among the top WRs in the league in the NFL.

The 8th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 60.6 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide. In this week's game, Jahmyr Gibbs is anticipated by the model to place in the 93rd percentile among RBs with 5.1 targets. Jahmyr Gibbs rates in the 98th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 23.8 figure this year. With an outstanding 4.0 adjusted catches per game (99th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs places among the best RB receiving threats in the NFL.

The Broncos rank as the 7th-least pass-focused offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.6% pass rate. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to call just 61.6 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-fewest among all teams this week. The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Denver Broncos this year (a lowly 53.6 per game on average).

The Broncos rank as the 7th-least pass-focused offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.6% pass rate. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to call just 61.6 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-fewest among all teams this week. The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Denver Broncos this year (a lowly 53.6 per game on average). Adam Trautman's 73.2% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a significant diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 80.6% mark.

The 8th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 60.6 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide. In this week's game, Sam LaPorta is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 96th percentile among TEs with 6.7 targets. Sam LaPorta profiles as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an exceptional 5.0 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 94th percentile. The Broncos pass defense has surrendered the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.3%) versus TEs this year (78.3%).

Jerry Jeudy has gone over 3.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Josh Reynolds has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Jameson Williams has gone over 1.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Kalif Raymond has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Brock Wright has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Lil'Jordan Humphrey has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

David Montgomery has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Marvin Mims Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.