Detroit @ Chicago props

The predictive model expects the Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Bears to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. When it comes to pass protection (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on throwing than their usual approach. Roschon Johnson has been an integral part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 10.1% this year, which places him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs. With a fantastic 2.3 adjusted catches per game (76th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson stands as one of the leading pass-catching RBs in the NFL. The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 4th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on throwing than their usual approach. The model projects Cole Kmet to garner 5.4 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Cole Kmet's 5.1 adjusted catches per game this year indicates a significant progression in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 3.0 figure. Cole Kmet's 84.9% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a significant growth in his receiving ability over last season's 74.3% figure. The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 4th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a massive 60.9 per game on average). The Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (39.8 per game) this year. In this week's contest, Sam LaPorta is predicted by the model to slot into the 96th percentile among tight ends with 6.8 targets. Sam LaPorta's 48.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 97th percentile for TEs. With an impressive 5.3 adjusted catches per game (96th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta has been among the top pass-game TEs in football.

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a massive 60.9 per game on average). The Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (39.8 per game) this year. This week, Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected by the model to place in the 91st percentile among wide receivers with 9.2 targets. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 30.4% this year, which puts him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 7.7 adjusted catches per game this year indicates an impressive progression in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 6.7 rate.

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a massive 60.9 per game on average). The Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (39.8 per game) this year. The model projects Jahmyr Gibbs to accrue 4.7 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs. Jahmyr Gibbs rates in the 98th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) with a superb 24.7 mark this year. Jahmyr Gibbs rates as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging a fantastic 4.1 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.

Khalil Herbert has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Equanimeous St. Brown has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 7 games.

Brock Wright has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Tyler Scott has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Jameson Williams has gone over 1.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Darnell Mooney has gone over 2.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Josh Reynolds has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

David Montgomery has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.