New England @ Pittsburgh props

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.8% pass rate. DeVante Parker's 57.6% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 64.6% figure. This year, the fierce Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded a paltry 62.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 8th-smallest rate in the league. The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers project as the 6th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Right now, the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots. The predictive model expects Hunter Henry to garner 5.4 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile among tight ends. Hunter Henry's 30.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 82nd percentile for tight ends.

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Right now, the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.

In this contest, Diontae Johnson is predicted by the predictive model to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.0 targets. Diontae Johnson's 72.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 63.2. With a fantastic 4.4 adjusted receptions per game (80th percentile) this year, Diontae Johnson has been as one of the leading pass-catching WRs in football. The New England cornerbacks project as the 7th-worst unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Right now, the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots. In this week's contest, Ezekiel Elliott is projected by the projections to place in the 94th percentile among RBs with 5.0 targets. The model projects Ezekiel Elliott to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack in this week's game (15.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.2% in games he has played). Ezekiel Elliott's receiving talent has been refined this season, totaling 2.1 adjusted receptions compared to just 1.1 last season.

In this week's game, Jaylen Warren is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 77th percentile among running backs with 3.6 targets. Jaylen Warren has been a much bigger part of his team's passing game this year (13.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (6.3%). Jaylen Warren's play as a receiver has been refined this season, notching 3.2 adjusted receptions vs just 1.8 last season. The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (89.7%) to running backs this year (89.7%). When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, New England's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 10th-worst in football.

The model projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 5.0 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile among tight ends. Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 67.8% to 76.2%. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, New England's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 10th-worst in football.

Tyquan Thornton has gone over 2.5 in 2 of his last 9 games.

Najee Harris has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

George Pickens has gone over 3.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Connor Heyward has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Allen Robinson II has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.