Buffalo @ Philadelphia props

Our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.17 seconds per play. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's safety corps has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the league.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in the league. Our trusted projections expect Dalton Kincaid to accrue 8.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among TEs. Our trusted projections expect Dalton Kincaid to be a less important option in his offense's pass game in this week's contest (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.8% in games he has played). With an exceptional 5.2 adjusted receptions per game (96th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid places among the leading TEs in the pass game in football.

Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.3 plays per game. Our trusted projections expect D'Andre Swift to notch 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs. As it relates to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Eagles profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year. With a remarkable 3.3 adjusted catches per game (94th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift stands among the best pass-catching running backs in the league.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in the league. In this week's game, Stefon Diggs is anticipated by the predictive model to position himself in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 10.8 targets. With an impressive 30.3% Target Share (96th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs stands as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in football. With a remarkable 7.0 adjusted receptions per game (96th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs stands among the leading wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL.

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Buffalo's CB corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 6th-best in football.

Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.3 plays per game. Our trusted projections expect Jack Stoll to be much more involved in his offense's pass game in this week's contest (7.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (1.7% in games he has played). As it relates to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Eagles profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

Kenneth Gainwell has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Gabe Davis has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Khalil Shakir has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

DeVonta Smith has gone over 4.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Julio Jones has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.