Washington @ Dallas props

Right now, the 10th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Commanders. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football. This year, the formidable Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded a puny 79.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 10th-lowest rate in the league. The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 4th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

With a 13.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

The Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 6.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context). The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cowboys are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-most on the slate this week. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.9 plays per game. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.

Right now, the 10th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Commanders. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football. The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 4th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

The Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 6.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context). The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cowboys are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-most on the slate this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL. CeeDee Lamb's 7.3 adjusted receptions per game this season illustrates a material growth in his pass-catching skills over last season's 6.2 figure.

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 13.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized). At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are big underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 70.3% of their downs: the greatest frequency on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide. With an outstanding 5.0 adjusted receptions per game (89th percentile) this year, Terry McLaurin stands among the leading wide receivers in the game in the league.

Rico Dowdle has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

John Bates has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Brandin Cooks has gone over 3.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Jalen Tolbert has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Curtis Samuel has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Jahan Dotson has gone over 3.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Michael Gallup has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Antonio Gibson has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.