Miami @ Kansas City props

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 63.7% of their downs: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. In this week's game, Tyreek Hill is projected by the model to position himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 12.4 targets. Tyreek Hill's 80.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 99th percentile for WRs. Tyreek Hill grades out as one of the best WRs in the league this year, averaging an excellent 7.6 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 68.4% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Travis Kelce's 7.8 adjusted receptions per game this year conveys a noteable gain in his receiving ability over last year's 6.6 figure. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.3%) to TEs this year (79.3%).

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 63.7% of their downs: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. With an extraordinary 52.3% Route Participation Rate (86th percentile) this year, Raheem Mostert has been as one of the pass-game running backs with the highest volume in the NFL. This week, Raheem Mostert is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 75th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.0 targets. With an outstanding 2.4 adjusted catches per game (77th percentile) this year, Raheem Mostert rates among the top running backs in the pass game in the league.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 63.7% of their downs: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Durham Smythe has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (74.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (27.1%). Durham Smythe's receiving talent has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 2.4 adjusted receptions vs just 1.2 last year. Durham Smythe's 83.6% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a material growth in his pass-catching skills over last year's 78.3% mark.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 68.4% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The model projects Isiah Pacheco to earn 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among running backs. Isiah Pacheco's 9.3% Target% this year illustrates a meaningful progression in his passing attack utilization over last year's 2.2% rate.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 68.4% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Rashee Rice profiles as one of the best possession receivers in football, catching a remarkable 79.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 95th percentile among wideouts. The Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.9%) versus wide receivers this year (71.9%).

Kadarius Toney has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Jerick McKinnon has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Jaylen Waddle has gone over 5.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Noah Gray has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Jeff Wilson Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Skyy Moore has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Braxton Berrios has gone over 2.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.