Tampa Bay @ Buffalo props

The Bills are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have just 125.9 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 67.7% pass rate. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in football. The leading projections forecast Dalton Kincaid to accumulate 6.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among TEs. While Dalton Kincaid has garnered 13.0% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Buffalo's passing offense this week at 19.0%. Dalton Kincaid comes in as one of the top pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an outstanding 4.2 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized). Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are expected by the projections to run just 62.5 total plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week. The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.3 plays per game. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.7 per game) this year. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Buffalo's group of safeties has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 5th-best in football.

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are giant underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week. This week, Mike Evans is anticipated by the model to position himself in the 89th percentile among wide receivers with 8.4 targets. Mike Evans's 64.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 55.0. With a remarkable 4.8 adjusted catches per game (82nd percentile) this year, Mike Evans rates as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL in the league.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized). Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are expected by the projections to run just 62.3 total plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week. The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.3 plays per game. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.7 per game) this year. Chris Godwin's 5.5 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a material reduction in his receiving ability over last year's 6.8 mark.

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 67.7% pass rate. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in football. In this contest, Stefon Diggs is projected by the model to slot into the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.5 targets. Stefon Diggs has been a much bigger part of his offense's pass game this season (33.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (28.0%). Stefon Diggs's 7.9 adjusted catches per game this year represents a material progression in his receiving ability over last year's 6.8 rate.

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are giant underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week. Cade Otton has been used less as a potential target this year (82.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (63.9%). The predictive model expects Cade Otton to notch 4.3 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among TEs. Cade Otton's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 66.2% to 76.7%.

Khalil Shakir has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Trey Palmer has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Deven Thompkins has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Latavius Murray has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.