Los Angeles @ Cincinnati props

The model projects the Rams to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced pass game effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's contest. The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board. Kyren Williams's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 79.9% to 54.5%. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (76.7%) to running backs since the start of last season (76.7%).

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 99.5% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers. The projections expect Ja'Marr Chase to total 10.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among wideouts. Ja'Marr Chase has been among the best pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 7.1 receptions per game while ranking in the 99th percentile. The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has allowed the highest Completion% in the league (70.1%) versus WRs since the start of last season (70.1%).

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The model projects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 5.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs. Tyler Higbee has been among the top tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 4.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 94th percentile. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in football (77.4%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (77.4%).

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script. The leading projections forecast this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board. Joe Mixon's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 86.0% to 74.8%.

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects Puka Nacua to earn 9.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among WRs. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties profile as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Ben Skowronek has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Tyler Boyd has gone over 3.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Van Jefferson has gone over 2.5 in 1 of his last 5 games.

Tee Higgins has gone over 4.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Drew Sample has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Tutu Atwell has gone over 4.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.