Mississippi @ Kentucky Picks & Props

I just don't see a world where Kentucky is able to keep up with Mississippi this season. Now, I probably thought that last season as well, but this year the Wildcats are in the conversation for the worst team in the SEC. The Kentucky offense also looked very one-dimensional in the Wildcats' season-opening win vs. Toledo, throwing for just 85 yards. And the Rebels defense will be much better. Meanwhile, QB Austin Simmons looked solid in his first start, which isn't easy to do after two years of Jaxson Dart. 

Dante Dowdell is part of a two-headed rushing attack for the Wildcats, and busted a 79-yd run against Toledo as he picked up 129 yards on 14 carries. We're likely to see both Dowdell and Seth McGowan each receive double-digit carries, and Dowdell's rushing total sits 15 yards lower than his teammate. Dowdell topped 45 yards in 11 of his last 14 collegiate appearances, and he'll do so against an Ole Miss defense that gave up big runs to Georgia State's rushing attack. 

Ole Miss struggled to protect Austin Simmons against Georgia State, and that could be problematic against Kentucky's top pass-rushing unit from Week 1 according to PFF. It's also his first ever road start in a tough environment, and the Wildcats will look to use the run to limit the number of possessions for the Rebels. All these factors should lead to a lower yardage total for the visiting quarterback. 

Zach Calzada did not look comfortable last week against Toledo, and will be under much more pressure Saturday against Ole Miss. Kentucky will run the ball as much as possible, and Calzada will struggle to reach the 150-yard mark. 

Diggs may not get the bulk of the carries, but he's still a big part of the Mississippi backfield and will get plenty of chances to score against Kentucky.

The Rebels suffocated opposing ground attacks last year, allowing 2.3 yards per rush. While they lost a lot of NFL talent off the front, it’s still expected to be a team strength. Kentucky’s one-dimensional offense shouldn’t pose many fits, and the Mississippi staff will be reliant upon stopping the run. 

One-dimensional Kentucky offense could struggle against a strong Ole Miss defensive front, and McGowan is splitting carries. 

Kentucky has thrived under Mark Stoops by running the ball to shorten games, and relying on a strong defense to keep games close. Lane Kiffin will likely rely on his own rushing attack early to help Austin Simmons settle in for his first-ever road start. Add in a lack of explosive passing attack for the Wildcats, and you've got all the making for a lower-scoring affair in Lexington. 

Kentucky will find success with its ground game, and the defense will hold up as long as possible against Austin Simmons and the Ole Miss RPO attack. But a lack of passing threat from Zach Calzada will lead to stalled drives, and the Rebels will eventually pull away to win by two touchdowns or more.