Cincinnati vs Arizona Picks & Props
CIN vs ARIZ Picks
NCAAF PicksFirst-quarter Under 12.5 is playable down to 10.5. Both offenses play slowly, while poor third-down defense can extend possessions and burn clock. Both defenses also tighten up in the red zone, creating opportunities for field goals instead of touchdowns.
Over 55.5 is playable up to 56.5. Both offenses rank in the 83rd percentile or better in explosive-play rate, while neither defense consistently prevents explosives or gets off the field on late downs.
Arizona -6.5 is playable up to -7.5. I'm fading the popular Cincinnati underdog because Arizona owns the better early-down EPA differential, while the Bearcats' weak defensive line could finally give Noah Fifita support from the Wildcats' rushing attack.
I'm expecting a slow start before the offenses take over. Both teams play slowly but generate explosive plays, while Arizona's early-down efficiency and Cincinnati's weakness in the trenches give the Wildcats the matchup edge.
CIN vs ARIZ Consensus Picks
CIN vs ARIZ Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
CIN
J. French IV
(QB)
o192.5 Passing Yards
211.06 OVER
PROJECTION
+18.6
DIFFERENCE
17.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
N. Fifita
(QB)
u278.5 Passing Yards
273.11 UNDER
PROJECTION
-5.4
DIFFERENCE
11.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ARIZ
K. Reescano
(RB)
o39.5 Rushing Yards
47.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.5
DIFFERENCE
26.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
CIN
J. French IV
(QB)
u29.5 Rushing Yards
24.25 UNDER
PROJECTION
-5.3
DIFFERENCE
24.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
N. Fifita
(QB)
u20.5 Rushing Yards
16.56 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.9
DIFFERENCE
23.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ARIZ
I. Mahdi
(RB)
o48.5 Rushing Yards
50.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.1
DIFFERENCE
11.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
CIN
G. Payne
(RB)
o69.5 Rushing Yards
70.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
4.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
CIN
J. Gibson
(WR)
o59.5 Receiving Yards
64.79 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.3
DIFFERENCE
23.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ARIZ
T. Spivey
(WR)
o77.5 Receiving Yards
77.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
9.07%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 5-0 in Bearcats last 5 road games.
Under is 6-0 in Wildcats last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in Bearcats last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-0 in Bearcats last 4 games as a road underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Bearcats last 4 games following a straight up win.
Under is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 conference games.
Under is 7-1 in Wildcats last 8 games as a home favorite.
Under is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 games on grass.