Georgia @ Alabama Picks & Props

I was a little surprised to see Alabama as the underdog in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. It feels like recency bias is in play here. Bama struggled to put away an average Auburn team, even though its a rivalry game on the road, and lost to Oklahoma, despite massively outgaining them. Sure, it's a close matchup, but the Tide outplayed and beat the Dawgs in Athens in their early-season meeting and have been the more consistent team for the majority of the year. There is value with Alabama as underdogs here.

Alabama beat Georgia on the road despite allowing 227 rushing yards at nearly seven yards a carry. It did so by getting stops on third down, and limiting scoring chances.

Frazier has taken on a bigger part of the offense as the season has progressed, averaging 86.7 rushing yards across the final six games of the year. Alabama ranks 68th in EPA per rush and 111th in rushing explosiveness allowed, so this isn't too scary of a matchup.

There's some hidden value with Georgia playing in the same stadium two weeks in a row where they'll have the crowd advantage. I also like the revenge factor with two teams that are very comparable from a talent perspective. Alabama won a coin flip game in their most recent meeting and is coming off a game where they won, but got outgained by 131 yards.

Georgia has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games and Alabama has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games.

Bama won the matchup earlier this season and has owned the series since 2012 when both teams started dominating the SEC.