College Football Picks

Wyoming has been an Under machine during Jay Sawvel's tenure. The Cowboys hit the Under in 10 of 12 games last year behind one of the top defenses in the G6 (55th by SP+) and one of the worst offenses (130th by SP+). Colorado State's offense is dealing with a ton of roster turnover (116th in returning production), too, as Jim Mora Jr. takes over. 

The Texas A&M Aggies bring back starting quarterback Marcel Reed and boast a deep wide receiver corps including Mario Craver, Ashton Bethel-Roman, and Isaiah Horton. This offense put up 33.8 ppg last year and will be able to name its score against a Missouri State Bears team that is adjusting to a new head coach in Casey Woods, along with a new defensive coordinator. I'm backing Texas A&M to cover at up to 42.5 points.

Sam Houston was terrible in Phil Longo's first season (2-10, 3-9 ATS), and this year won't be any better. The Bearkats are projected to rank 135th on defense by SP+ and are starting an O-line entirely made up of transfers. Troy is built to stop Sam Houston's Air Raid too, after the Trojans ranked 31st in EPA per pass on defense last year.

Former Kansas State standout Jayce Brown has generated plenty of hype since transferring to LSU. The senior receiver caught 41 passes for 712 yards and 5 touchdowns last season, averaging 17.4 yards per catch.

The 2025 All-Big 12 receiver has reportedly emerged as one of Sam Leavitt’s top targets in practice. When in doubt, trust your favorite pair of hands. Brown should provide a legitimate deep threat in this matchup.

Look for Leavitt to connect with Brown downfield.

Central Michigan ran the ball (41.9 attempts per game) more than twice as much as it threw (19.6 attempts per game). New Mexico has one of the best run defenses in the G6. Led by Jaxton Eck, the Lobos were 36 in EPA per rush on defense in 2025. And New Mexico's ground game should gash a Chippewas defense that's 131st in returning production (29%).

We have a data point for both Week 0 participants, and UNLV's (460 yards against one of the best defenses in the Group of 6) is more encourgaing that Hawai'i's (36% rate offensively, 6.5 YPP allowed defensively). With wind and rain in the forecast, UNLV's ground-heavy offensive philosophy is well-suited to survive, whereas Hawai'i's ineffective, aerial-led Run-and-Shoot (just without the running) is not.

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is great, but his statistical output may not match sky-high expectations this season. New offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville --- a 31-year-old first-time play caller at this level --- is installing a "pro style" offense that doesn't seem friendly to fat statistical performances. UCLA will look to control the clock, limiting time of possession for the Bears, who have new personnel out wide. 

For the first time in Jedd Fisch's tenure at Washington, he doesn't have Jonah Coleman and Denzel Boston. With the Huskies best two playmakers now in the NFL, Demond Williams Jr. could get off to a slow start in a rivalry game against a Wazzu defense full of upperclassmen. Scoring will be even harder for the Cougars, who have to deal with a Washington defense that was 10th in EPA per rush last year.

The key to the Under will be Wisconsin's defense. The Badgers' offense is going to struggle to score more than 13 points at Lambeau Field against a Notre Dame defense with the best secondary in the country. But even while Wisconsin has struggled during the Luke Fickell era, the defense has been solid. It was ranked 35th by SP+ last year, and as long as it can keep Notre Dame to 35 or fewer points, the Under will be in good shape.

Since hiring Jeff Brohm in 2023, the Louisville Cardinals are 2-6 Over/Under against ranked teams. Only two of their offensive starters played on last year's team, and Ohio State transfer QB Lincoln Kienholz makes his team debut Sunday. 

Pete Golding was a long-time defensive coordinator, which probably makes him a more conservative playcaller than Kiffin, and Ole Miss has more defensive continuity year over year. The Rebels lost five of their top-six receivers, so they should run more, at least in Week 1, which means more running clock. 

In Week 0, against a New Mexico State defense that was ranked 121st by SP+ last year, Florida State had just 17 points midway through the third quarter. The Seminoles' offense is clearly flawed with Ashton Daniels at QB. If the Mustangs' defense, which ranked 15th in EPA per rush in 2025, slows FSU's ground game, the Under will be in position to hit.

Former Mississippi head coach Lane Kiffin will take his new team, LSU, into Oxford. Considering the controversial way he left the Rebels prior to the playoffs last year, there might not be a more hostile environment in college football this season. It’s a game worthy of giving the home team more than three points of home-field advantage.