Minnesota @ Las Vegas picks

The Las Vegas Aces have felt both ends of the Minnesota Lynx's wrath, losing 109-78 on July 25, and 76-62 on June 17. Vegas has dropped five straight to the Lynx, also going 0-5-0 against the spread. They’ve lost by at least 11 points in all the losses. While this game features a matchup of MVP favorite Napheesa Collier and current holder A'ja Wilson – the top 2 scoring women in the WNBA – Las Vegas is not in the same league as Minnesota currently, and it will show Saturday.

Kayla McBride is a versatile scorer. She’s shooting 42% from the field, 38% from long range, and makes 93% of her nearly three attempts from the charity stripe. The Las Vegas Aces' defense is inconsistent. They’ve allowed 83 points per game across their last five and 50 ppg during that stretch against guards like McBride. McBride should play 30+ minutes. She’s coming off a season-high 24 points against the New York Liberty. She’s scored 14+ in three of her previous five road games, and I’m betting on the value her scoring prop provides.

Napheesa “MVPhee” Collier is a ruthless, versatile scorer, averaging 23.8 points and 3.6 assists per game this season, with a 25-point, two-assist gem against the Aces in July. The Las Vegas Aces bleed 37 points per game in the paint, a weakness Collier’s elite inside game (52.4% FG) will exploit. If they double-team her, Collier is surrounded by snipers to ensure she racks up assists to complement her scoring. At -105, this prop is a steal for a player who’s cleared 26.5 points + assists in 60% of her games this season.

Minnesota has allowed 79 points per game across the past five on a measly 42% shooting from inside the arc and 35% shooting from downtown. I expect the Lynx to double-team A'ja Wilson and clog the passing lanes. She’ll get her buckets, but Vegas shooting only 42% from the field and 32% from downtown won’t add many dimes to Wilson’s final tally. Wilson averages 22 points and three assists per game. Minnesota held her to just 18 points & assists on July 25, and I’m betting they keep the reigning MVP to below 27 points plus assists.