College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

The Iowa Hawkeyes are the fifth-slowest team in the country. The Illinois Fighting Illini rank in the bottom quarter. No wonder this game’s total is 138.5. Taking the 1H Under protects you against second-half chaos inherent to a tournament setting.

The Hawkeyes can be exploited by the inside-out game and the last time Mirkovic faced Iowa, he handed out five helpers. Both of these teams want to play a slower tempo and live in the halfcourt, unlike the frenzied pressure the Cougars threw at Illinois. That allows for ball movement and Mirkovic to thrive as a passer. Before Thursday, he had recorded three or more assists in four straight games and Elite Eight projections sit between 2.5 and 3.6 dimes which gives great value at plus-money.

The Boilermakers are a finesse offensive team that will melt against the superior athleticism and physicality of the Wildcats. Purdue's backcourt of Braden Smith and Foster Loyer aren't quick enough to hang with Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries. Meanwhile, Trey Kaufman-Renn won't get open looks on the interior against an Arizona squad that ranks second in the country in 2-point defense (44.2%). On offense, the Wildcats love to attack the basket with a whopping 73.6% of their shots coming inside the arc. They'll torch a brutal Purdue defense that ranks 334th in opponent 2PT% since the start of January.

Mara passing prowess is an underrated part of the 7-footer’s game. He has excellent court vision, either hitting dump downs on a high-low set or kicking out to open shooters. The Volunteers have a big interior defense and swarm with double teams every time the ball enters the paint. Mara won’t have much time to make a move, so he’ll look to pack the paint and find a release pass to an open shooter. He finished the Alabama game with four dimes and has dished out 15 total assists in the NCAA Tournament.

Tennessee has the size to counter Michigan’s interior, but Yaxel Lendeborg is a tough draw. The Wolverines small forward takes whatever the defense gives him. He’s able to shoot from outside, drive past slower checks, or body smaller ones, and he scores from the foul line. He’s scored 23 and 25 points in up-tempo games with SLU and Alabama but even with a slower pace against the Vols, he has too many offensive options. Projections sit closer to 17 points.

I’m a little shocked at this point total as Alex Karaban is a big problem for this Duke defense. The Blue Devils may not have a perfect solve for UConn’s inside-out forward and Cameron Boozer isn’t the best option to chase Karaban around and defend off screens. And even if Duke decides to go back to zone – as it has against St. John’s and Siena – Karaban is a dead eye threat from beyond the arc. Projections all sit north of this total, with a high closer to 15 points. Even that feels a little low.