College Basketball Picks

The Bulldogs are fresh off a win but are 4-6 in their last 10 games, including three losses in Athens. Meanwhile, the Tide have won eight in a row. Both teams have explosive offenses but the Tide are more efficient from deep and have performed extremely well away from home where they average 90.8 ppg. Alabama has also been significantly better defensively lately. Over the last 10 games, UGA is 14th in the conference in adjusted defense and 13th in opponent eFG% (56%), while Bama ranks seventh in adjusted defense and fourth in opponent eFG% (49.9%).

The Wildcats make just 47.5% of their shots inside the arc in SEC road play, while turning the ball over frequently. They’re also prone to being hurt by quality ball movement.

The Aggies lead the SEC in forced turnover rate at home, and defend the arc exceptionally well. They rank 13th nationally in assist rate and take great care of the basketball.

With Caleb Wilson sidelined for North Carolina, Clemson has a significant size advantage and will cover the spread with its more efficient defense.

The Johnies rank 14th in the country in adjusted defense. They'll shut down the Georgetown Hoyas who rank 265th in eFG% and lost leading scorer KJ Lewis to a season-ending injury last week. On defense, the Hoyas sit outside the top 200 in opponent TO rate, defensive rebounding rate, and opponent FT rate. That's bad news against St. John's who limit turnovers, dominate the glass and get to the line at an extremely high rate. In the Johnnies last five home games they beat Butler, Creighton, and Villanova by more than 20 points while defeating No. 4 UConn 81-72.

Edmonds hauls in 3.5 offensive boards per Big 12 tilt and flips those into 3.6 second-chance points. The TCU Horned Frogs forward cleans the glass hard since seeing a spike in minutes in late January while also scoring 14 or more points in eight of his last 10 games. Edmonds’ player projections range from 14.1 to 16 points tonight, sitting higher than his current points total.

Florida's defense ranks in the 100th percentile against almost every action the Bulldogs run the most. The Bulldogs' best half-court play type is perimeter cutting actions with Josh Hubbard at the head of the snake and Florida literally has the best perimeter cut defense in the country among power four teams.

The Cardinals rank in the 97th percentile in attack and kicks, and Syracuse simply doesn’t defend that well enough (0.93 PPP allowed).

The Cardinals rank in the 97th percentile in attack & kicks and Syracuse simply doesn’t defend that well enough (0.93 PPP allowed). In addition, an elite transition offense will get a boost against a Syracuse team that allows transition at a 90th percentile frequency. Even with Mikel Brown out, this number is too short.

Humrichous is starting to live up the hype he garnered when coming from Evansville to Illinois. He’s been very active from beyond the arc in the past month and has scored eight or more points in six of his last nine games while logging more minutes. He’s drawing more minutes and making the most of it, averaging 8.4 points over the past nine contests while hitting double figures in five of those games. Humrichous has 5.5 3PA over the last nine games and adds second-chance points, with game projections north of eight points. 

The Illini have covered the first half spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI). They look to get back on track after back-to-back defeats, an overtime heartbreaker at UCLA and a home loss to No. 2 Michigan. Luckily they get to host Big Ten doormat Oregon tonight. The Ducks have the lowest rated offense in the conference and are just 4-17 against high-major opponents. They don't have the firepower to hang with the Illini who have the highest rated offense in KenPom history. Especially since Oregon struggles to defend the arc and gives up way too many offensive rebounds — areas where Illinois' offense excels. 

After playing at a fast pace earlier in the season, the Sun Devils are 242nd in the country in adjusted tempo since the start of February. That slower pace has led to the Under cashing in eight of their last nine games. They have an ugly 50 EFG% in conference play and will struggle to score against Kansas who rank ninth in the country in adjusted defense and fifth in opponent eFG% (45%). That said, the Jayhawks offense underperforms away from home, where they shoot just 48.6% from 2-point range. Kansas is 20-9 to the Under this season and I expect that trend to continue tonight. 

Keyshawn Hall’s projections range from 22.1 to a ceiling of 23.3 points versus the LSU Tigers. Hall is exceptional when it comes to scoring at the rim as well as bagging bonus second-chance tallies, which are two areas LSU’s defense struggles with. On top of it being Senior Night, Hall is also trying to boost his draft stock and will have the “green light”, leading to 15+ FGAs.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers actually have the travel edge in this road game, given they played USC on Saturday and hung tight on the West Coast while the UCLA Bruins had to fly back after a loss at Minnesota on Saturday. Nebraska is already the better of these two teams, but giving the Cornhuskers a travel edge should make this a pretty quick decision.

Playing on the West Coast in late night games has been extremely tough for Midwest schools but Nebraska stayed in L.A. following Saturday's win against USC. The Huskers might fatigue late in this game but expect them to get out to a fast start, just like Purdue and Illinois did before hitting a wall. They rank fifth in the country in adjusted defense and 10th in opponent 3PT% (29.4%) which should slow down a UCLA attack that needs to hit threes to get going. On the other side of the floor, Nebraska ranks 21st in the country in 2PT (58.3%) while the Bruins are just 244th in opponent 2PT% (53.3%).