College Basketball Picks

The Cincinnati Bearcats ended the regular season with a 73-63 loss to TCU. However, they entered that contest red-hot, winning six of their previous seven and scoring 84+ points in five of those games. Cincinnati scored just 69 points at home against the Utes last month but went 4-15 from deep so expect positive regression. Especially since Utah ranks dead-last in league play in opponent eFG% (55.9%) and opponent TO rate. The Utah Utes prefer a slow pace but are 29th in the country in opponent possession length so they are clearly unable to dictate tempo. Since the start of February, the Bearcats are third in the conference in eFG% (55.6%) while ranking fourth in turnover rate.

SMU, with Boopie Miller, ranks in the 75th percentile in both attack + kick and big + cut actions. Syracuse can’t defend either. On the other side, the Orange have a clear path to scoring on pick-and-pop actions with Donnie Freeman.

There are clear paths to both teams scoring regularly in the halfcourt. SMU, with Boopie Miller, ranks in the top 75th percentile of basketball in both attack + kick, along with big + cut actions. Syracuse can’t defend either. On the other side, Syracuse has a clear path to scoring on pick-and-pop actions with Donnie Freeman. Expect points.

The Terps were bullied for 42 points in the paint by Illinois and now face a sizable Oregon Ducks frontcourt. Bigs Nate Bittle and Kwame Evans Jr. combined for 28 points in the win over UM in January, in which the Ducks tallied half of their 64 points inside. Not only is Maryland outmatched by that interior offense, but the Terps don’t shoot well enough to overcome Oregon’s protection in the paint. Game models call for a Ducks win by four points.

Va Tech wants this in the halfcourt because its matchups are so exploitable there. They score at 1.06 PPP on Attack & Kick (91st percentile) against a Wake defense that allows well above-average scoring on such sets. That’s just one advantage. I’ll take the Hokies.

Due to elevation, the Cougars have a significant advantage at home which disappears at road and neutral sites. While they boast a scoring margin of +15.4 ppg in Provo that shrinks to +2.1 ppg away from home. The Cougars have been inconsistent since losing All-Big 12 guard Richie Saunders to a season-ending injury. Especially on defense where they sit outside the top 300 in opponent eFG% (55.3%) and opponent TO rate since February 1. The Kansas State Wildcats have scorers like P.J. Haggerty and Nate Johnson who can get buckets against this struggling defense. They've also played harder since firing Jerome Tang.

Mercyhurst has been a cover star, going 5-0-0 against the spread in its last five, and 8-2-0 ATS in the last 10. 

Hofstra has won both regular season meetings between these teams, and with Cruz Davis, they have scoring threats that Monmouth can't match. I'm taking the Pride to cover and book their trip to March Madness.

The Wright State Raiders also rank in the top five in several conference defensive metrics and have a big edge on the glass at both ends. Look for some championship game nerves early and a lower-scoring battle than this number suggests.

The Wildcats' offensive rating spiked in the final five games, fueled by hot outside shooting. Northwestern knocked down almost 42% of its 3-point looks, and now it faces a Penn State defense getting buried from beyond the arc. 

Eleven of the Saints’ last 12 games have produced a total of 130+ points.

Santa Clara has been firing away from deep, connecting with frequent success. The Broncos are 26 of 61 from deep in the WCC Tournament, winning outright last night as 4.5-point dogs.