NBA Picks

With a 19.6 PPG average so far in April, after a 19.8 PPG mark in March, Amen Thompson taken some of the scoring burden off Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun, and I see Thompson sparking a ninth straight win for Houston tonight. Despite largely giving up on 3-pointers, Thompson has gone past this points prop O/U in three of his last four outings, and he’s shot 50% or better from the field in 13 of his last 14 contests.

As it relates to scoring, the Minnesota Timberwolves's outstanding 120.9 points per game while playing on the road rates 2nd-strongest in the league this year.. The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 5th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 5 games while on the road.

Ace Bailey has put up 21.6 points per game over the last 10 games while playing at home, 6.2 more than he's put up over the course of the year at home.. The speediest tempo team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Utah Jazz.. The Jazz will likely see a rise in plays in this game from facing the 5th-speediest tempo visiting offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Memphis Grizzlies).. The Jazz rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).

The speediest tempo team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Utah Jazz.. The Jazz will likely see a rise in plays in this game from facing the 5th-speediest tempo visiting offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Memphis Grizzlies).. The Jazz rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Warriors have taken four of five in this head-to-head, and aside from the last meeting, have won by at least 26 points in the other three wins.

But these aren't the same Warriors. And while they should win, they're really just trying to get Steph Curry up to full speed before the play-in. That's no stress, and definitely not a blowout.

The Kings have played at the 10th-speediest pace in the league over the last 15 games at home, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Golden State Warriors.. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and generate bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Warriors rank 4th-best in in the NBA as the road team with 13.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

The decision to back Jrue Holiday’s points prop is tied not only to the elevated minutes in an important game, but also to the matchup with Brook Lopez at center for the Clippers. Lopez prioritizes a deep drop coverage because it’s what allows him to be effective defensively. At this stage of his career, he doesn’t have the mobility to consistently step up and defend on the perimeter—it’s simply not his style. That defensive approach opens up a ton of above-the-break three-point opportunities and mid-range jumpers in pick-and-roll situations for the ball handler. This is a perfect fit for how Holiday prefers to score. Holiday also knocked down seven three-pointers in their previous meeting a couple of weeks ago, which further highlights the upside in this matchup. I price the Over 17.5 points at -165. 

There are a ton of games on the NBA slate for Friday, but this one might carry the most meaning. The Portland Trail Blazers are trying to catch the Los Angeles Clippers for the 8-seed to avoid having to win two games in the play-in tournament. The Clippers only hold a one-game lead, and this is a head-to-head matchup. What that means is we should see elevated minutes for Portland’s starters, which is why I’m targeting Deni Avdija’s points prop. The Clippers have several talented defenders, but they don’t match up particularly well with Avdija’s style of play. Kris Dunn is too small, and while Derrick Jones Jr. has the length, he’s too lean to handle Avdija’s physical, downhill approach. This prop is priced at -120 for over 25.5 points, but I make it closer to -175, which suggests there’s clear value to exploit.

Player projections are also cooling on James’ playmaking versus the Suns. His assist forecasts top out at 8.1 with most sitting shy of eight dimes against an inflated assist O/U. Marcus Smart could return and take the ball out of LeBron's hands. Smart gives L.A. much-needed backcourt depth and allows James to play his natural position off the ball, which makes him more of a shooter rather than a facilitator. Before Luka got hurt, James was averaging around seven assists during the Lakers’ red-hot run through March.

Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in more chances for scoring and assists, and the Suns rank 3rd-best in the league when playing on the road with 13.5 offensive boards per game this year.. Over the last 17 games when they are on the road, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 3.2 foul shots per game (10th-highest in the league) against the Lakers, succeeding in their efforts to get to the foul line.