NBA Picks

The Sacramento Kings rank as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.. This year, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (8th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Charlotte Hornets, making it tough to get to the foul line.

The matchup against the Charlotte Hornets is a positive one for 3-pointers; the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged the 3rd-most three-pointers per game in the league this year (2.5).. The 8th-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Sacramento Kings.. The Hornets have played at the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which should increase plays for the Sacramento Kings.. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and bring about bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings grade out 2nd-best in in the NBA away from home with 14.2 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.. The matchup against the Charlotte Hornets may be a strong one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a massive 4.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (4th-most in the NBA).

For all his sound and fury at the rim, Williamson is an underrated passer. He generates 6.3 potential assists per game, trickling down to an average of 3.3 dimes. He’s dished out three or more assists in 21 of his last 34 outings, including four helpers in the loss at Cleveland Saturday. Tonight’s player projections range between 3.4 and 4.4 assists for Zion.

The New York Knicks are listed as 8.5-point home favorites against the New Orleans Pelicans, and I’m comfortable laying that number—I make it closer to -12. New Orleans has been starting 6'7" Herb Jones at center, which can work against teams without scoring threats at the position, but it’s a major liability against a true seven-footer like Karl-Anthony Towns—especially with Mitchell Robinson crashing the offensive glass. That size mismatch should consistently tilt the interior in the Knicks’ favor. On the other end, the Knicks have the personnel to slow down the Pelicans’ offense. OG Anunoby brings the strength and mobility to match up with Zion Williamson, which helps limit one of New Orleans’ primary advantages. There’s also a bit of added motivation with Jose Alvarado facing his former team, which makes it even less likely that the intensity drops in the closing minutes if the second unit is on the floor.

Paolo Banchero had nine attempts from outside in Monday's loss to Indiana. He made four of those triples and has been active from outside during this slump. In fact, his long-range looks have climbed this month, averaging 4.5 3PAs (up from 3.8). The Cleveland Cavaliers rank 26th in opponent 3-point percentage and have allowed an average of almost 16 3-pointers over their last three contests. Banchero’s projections lean toward two triples, giving great value to this +150 prop.

In contrast to last season's 7.0 rate, Sam Merrill's points per game have increased this season to 12.8.. This year when they are at home, the opposition's starting SFs have compiled 18.9 points per game (3rd-most in the NBA) against the Orlando Magic, resulting in a good matchup for offensive efficiency.. The Magic have played at the 8th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games away from their home court, which ought to raise plays for the Cavaliers.. The Cavaliers rank as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).. The matchup against Orlando is a positive one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a massive 4.7 free throws per game this year when the Orlando Magic are away from home (3rd-most in the NBA).

The standard line at FanDuel is over 10.5 assists at -138, which clearly offers value, but I’d rather attack the alternate line of 12+ assists at +128 for Jokic. I price 12+ closer to -165, so there’s a significant edge on the alternate number. Jokic is averaging 12.5 assists on 19 potential assists in two games against the Phoenix Suns this season, which highlights how this matchup has been played. It’s clear that Jordan Ott is comfortable letting Jokic operate as a passer, and I expect that approach to continue—if not be amplified—on Tuesday given the current personnel. With Mark Williams out and Oso Ighodaro starting at center, the Suns simply don’t have the size to deal with Jokic one-on-one. Ighodaro is a solid backup, but he’ll need consistent help against Jokic’s strength and interior presence. That extra attention should open up passing lanes all night. 

Lay the points with Denver. The Nuggets bring the league’s most efficient offense into a matchup where Phoenix is struggling to defend and find rhythm. With Jokic controlling tempo and the Suns dropping four of five, Denver’s consistency and execution should create separation and cover the number late.