NBA Picks

Only eight players in the league competed against the Magic three or more times last season and averaged more than 28 points per contest in those outings, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker being one of them. 

His efficiency was off the charts, converting 56.1% from the field, 47.4% from behind the arc, and 87% at the charity stripe. 

Wednesday's prop is currently set at 18.5 points, which Alexander-Walker exceeded four out of four times, punctuated by a career-best 41-point outburst in a 12-point win on March 16. 

The edge is modest, but I’m backing the Heat at 52%, as I make them 55% favorites at home against Minnesota. Davion Mitchell can pressure LaMelo Ball at the point of attack, while Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo provide disruptive help defense against drives and actions involving Anthony Edwards.

We’ll be handicapping two versions of the Raptors this season: with Kawhi Leonard and without him due to load management. With Leonard available against Chicago, Toronto has a defensive edge against a Bulls offense that relies heavily on young wings Matas Buzelis and Caleb Wilson. Leonard, Scottie Barnes, and Collin Murray-Boyles give the Raptors three strong defenders who can disrupt Chicago’s young scorers and force tough, contested shots.

Charlotte will open the season without Kon Knueppel and Coby White, putting more offensive responsibility on Brandon Miller amid concerns about the team's preseason struggles and LaMelo Ball's absence. While Miller could struggle with efficiency without reliable playmaking support, Brooklyn lacks a defender who can consistently disrupt him. I understand the concerns surrounding Charlotte, but I can't justify the Nets as 58% favorites when Miller has a chance to lead the Hornets offensively.

The wrong team is favored here. Even on the road, I make Utah 54% favorites against Memphis. The Jazz have upgraded their roster by acquiring Jaren Jackson Jr. and drafting Darryn Peterson, but after years of questionable rotations and injury designations, I believe this is the season they finally prioritize winning. Utah has shown it can compete, and I expect early-season trading opportunities as the market adjusts to a team ready to step on the gas.

Everyone sees Tyrese Haliburton returning and the struggling Pelicans and wonders why Indiana is only -3.5. But that spread may actually be too high. I make New Orleans 47% to win, well above its 41% market price. Herb Jones gives the Pelicans a key defensive weapon against Haliburton, while Indiana will be without Aaron Nesmith and T.J. McConnell. Those absences matter, creating value on New Orleans in its home opener.

Houston is a team I'm watching early, as the Rockets could outperform their futures prices and emerge as a Western Conference dark horse. However, I can't justify them as 78% favorites against Dallas. I price the Mavericks closer to 30%, making them worth backing at 25%. I'm also hoping Ime Udoka sticks to his plan of limiting starter minutes and using a 10-man rotation to open the season.

The Warriors enter the season with significant injury concerns. Kristaps Porziņģis is out, Stephen Curry is probable after an ankle scare, and Brandin Podziemski is questionable. I expect the Lakers to exploit Golden State's interior with Walker Kessler in the fold, especially with Draymond Green at center. While Los Angeles is trading at 66%, I make the Lakers closer to 74% favorites, creating value on the moneyline.

This is the type of trade where even the worst-case scenario offers value, with room for our edge to grow. I'm locking in Phoenix at 42%, pricing the Suns as 46% underdogs with Deni Avdija in Portland's lineup. Avdija is questionable with ankle soreness, but I expect him to play. His absence isn't required for this trade to offer value, making it an appealing position regardless of the injury news.

Sacramento didn't do me any favors in the preseason, but I'm surprised to see the Kings trading as 36% underdogs against the Clippers. Los Angeles is already near the bottom of the West and will be without Brandon Ingram, Bradley Beal, and Max Strus. I'm not sold on Sacramento's starting five, but I prefer its lineup in this matchup. At 36% on the moneyline, I'll hit the button on the Kings.