Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 4, 2026
PHI
@
NY
Mon, May 4 • 8:00 PM ET
NY 1st Quarter -1.5 (-108)
The Knicks have been cashing early in the postseason, going 5-1 ATS in the 1st quarter while leading all playoff teams in 1st Q net rating. Meanwhile, Philly ranks just 14th in that category and continues to struggle out of the gate offensively, averaging a playoff-low 22.6 first-quarter points. After an emotional win two nights ago, the Sixers could be vulnerable to a flat start here while New York continues its trend of coming out fast.
Josh Hart o4.5 Total Assists (+100)
The Sixers could throw Joel Embiid on Josh Hart, as to keep him around the key in Game 1. New York will try to draw Embiid out and Hart will be a conduit for spot-up shooters or cutters to the rim. He dished out five or more assists in the first three games against Atlanta and finished the series averaging 4.3 assists on 5.5 potential dimes. In three regular season matchups with Philadelphia, Hart enjoyed some of his best passing performances. He recorded six, seven, and nine helpers in those outings. His projections for Game 1 bounce between 4.6 and 5.4 assists with my number at five dimes tonight.
MIN
@
SA
Mon, May 4 • 9:30 PM ET
Devin Vassell o12.5 Points Scored (-111)
The Spurs roll out a smaller lineup and with the injuries to the Minnesota backcourt, San Antonio will try to push pace and put the Timberwolves on their heels. Devin Vassell thrives in the open floor and is one of the Spurs’ best fastbreak attackers. Player models for Vassell all sit north of his scoring total of 12.5 O/U, ranging from 13.0 to a ceiling of 15.0 points. My numbers boils down to 14.3 points tonight.
Jaden McDaniels o2.5 Total Assists (-105)
Minnesota was able to attack the rim with the Nuggets missing Aaron Gordon, sending Daniels’ touches through the roof, but now he becomes more of a drive-and-kick facilitator. He posted assist totals of five, three, and one in three regular season matchups with the Spurs and finished with three assists in all but one of the six games versus Denver in Round 1. His assists forecasts for Game 1 aren’t bullshit on Daniels distributing, ranging from 1.7 to a couple projections at 2.9. However, with the adjustments the T-Wolves must make on offense and those missing bodies from the backcourt, I’m on the high side of Daniels’ dimes tonight.
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CLE
@
DET
Tue, May 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Jarrett Allen u7.5 Total Rebounds (+100)
Jarrett Allen’s round-one numbers were inflated by two astounding performances. In the other five games, failed to clear this very modest rebounding prop. The Cleveland Cavaliers ranked only No. 11 in the NBA following the All-Star Break in defensive rebounding percentage, very notable against the Detroit Pistons, the No. 3 offensive rebounding team in that time
Perhaps it should be considered impressive. Despite grabbing at least four offensive rebounds in five of the seven games in the first round, Jalen Duren scored more than 12 points just once, when he topped out at 15 points in Game 7. He is not turning those boards into points, creating value in a rather counterintuitive same-game parlay.
LAL
@
OKC
Tue, May 5 • 8:30 PM ET
OKC -15.5 (-110)
They met four times this season. The Thunder covered the spread in each game by an average of 19 points compared to bookmakers’ expectations.
The Lakers fell short of their team total in three of the four meetings by an average of 11.6 points even when including the sole Team Total Over, which came by two points.
JJ Redick will be smart to preserve any massive game from James for when it is within reach. Look at Game 4 of last round: The Lakers lost by 19 and trailed by more than that. Related: James played just 33 minutes and scored only 10 points.
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