NBA Picks

In two games since returning from a lengthy absence, Embiid shows no signs of rust as he’s posted 29 and 35 points. Embiid has scored 29+ in 16 of 35 games overall this season, reaching that mark in two straight and 11 of his last 14.

Oubre came off the bench for the Sixers in his return from an eight-game absense but still logged 28 minutes, showing a little rust in his return. He scored nine points on 3-for-5 shooting but looked plenty healthy after putting Charlotte Hornets forward Moussa Diabaté on a poster in the fourth quarter. Oubre scores over 14 points on outing on the season and Monday’s projections have him coming close to that output, ranging from 11 to 13 points. My number comes out just north of 12 points, providing excellent value for the Over 9.5 points tonight.

Since the start of March, Jalen Johnson is logging 8.8 dimes per contest and has recorded Over 7.5 assists in nine of 12 appearances.

Atlanta is averaging 91.8 field goal attempts per game this season, the second-most in the NBA, and that high-volume approach will also help Johnson’s chances of picking up Over 7.5 assists.

This is easily my favorite moneyline/spread bet on the board for Monday: Atlanta Hawks at -116. Boston has listed Jayson Tatum as doubtful, which makes sense on the second night of a back-to-back. Even if Jaylen Brown and Derrick White return after sitting out the first leg, Atlanta matches up well on the perimeter. With defenders like Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, they have the personnel to disrupt Boston’s primary creators. Tatum’s absence is especially significant in this matchup. Without that third elite shot creator, Boston becomes much easier to scheme against—particularly against a Hawks team built to defend wings. I make Atlanta closer to a -170 favorite here, and that’s still assuming both Brown and White are active. If either one sits, the value on this number only grows.

The Phoenix Suns have been the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 25 games.. The Phoenix Suns have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 25 games.

The matchup against Phoenix is a hard one for 3-point shots; when the Phoenix Suns are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged the least 3-pointers per game in the NBA this year (0.9).. The Memphis Grizzlies will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this contest from facing the 2nd-slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Suns).. The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Power forward Julian Champagnie is hitting his stride at the right time. After suffering through a scoring lull for most of the month, he’s averaging more than 11 points over the past six contests. Outside shooting has been the biggest factor for Champagnie’s surge, going a collective 15 for 38 from beyond the arc in that span. He’s hit at least three triples in four of those six games. Chicago is hemorrhaging almost 132 points against in that skid and with plenty of points to go around, Champagnie’s projections sit north of 11 points Monday.

It’s a no-brainer to say that Victor Wembanyama is the No.1 reason to take the Spurs seriously as a title contender. But Stephon Castle’s development as a two-way stud has to be second. Castle is coming off a 22-10-10 triple-double against the Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday, and he's gone past this combo O/U number in seven of his last nine contests.

Donte DiVincenzo rarely has to be asked twice when it comes to launching 3-pointers, and the T-Wolves have needed his volume shooting more than ever over the past few weeks. DiVincenzo has responded with 39 points across his last two outings, while making 10 of his 26 attempts from beyond the arc.

In regard to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's exceptional 123.4 points per game rates 7th-most in the league over the last 5 games.. This year when they are at home, opposing starting SGs have totaled 2.6 three-pointers per game (4th-highest in the league) against the Minnesota Timberwolves, resulting in a positive matchup.. The 3rd-fastest pace home team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Mavericks.. The Timberwolves have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 25 games while traveling, which ought to boost opportunities for the Mavericks.

Donovan Mitchell is averaging 27.4 points per contest on the road, and he scored 27 in his last road game in New Orleans. Utah is an easy matchup for opposing shooting guards, and they’re one of the worst defensive clubs in the Association.

Cleveland has been brutal in the big favorite role all season, going a pathetic 4-15-1 ATS when laying double digits. This also sets up as a tricky spot with the Cavs kicking off a back-to-back and a marquee matchup in LA vs the Lakers on deck tomorrow. Utah is coming off a rough 25-point loss to Phoenix, but they’ve shown a tendency to be more competitive after embarrasing losses. It's worth noting Utah already beat Cleveland outright earlier this season as a 13-point underdog.

The 7th-slowest pace home offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.. The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the 7th-most lethargic tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games (the Detroit Pistons).. Offensive rebounds retain possession and create extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Thunder rank 5thworst in in the league with just 9.6 offensive rebounds per game this year.

The matchup against the Pistons is a hard one for 3-point shots; the opposing team's starting SGs have posted the 2nd-lowest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (27.6%).. The 7th-slowest pace home offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.. The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to experience a decrease in possessions today from facing the 7th-most lethargic tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games (the Detroit Pistons).. Offensive rebounds retain possession and create extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Thunder rank 5thworst in in the league with just 9.6 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Austin Reaves is priced at +119 for over 7.5 assists on Monday against the Washington Wizards, and that’s a number I’m comfortable backing—I price it closer to -145. With Luka Dončić out, Reaves steps into a much larger playmaking role than usual, and I don’t think this line fully accounts for that shift. He should operate as the primary creator, running the offense against a depleted Wizards team that lacks the defensive personnel to disrupt actions or prevent potential assists from turning into actual ones. Even with the Lakers installed as heavy favorites, Reaves’ minutes should remain stable. In a blowout scenario, LeBron James is more likely to be the one who sits earlier, while Reaves continues to handle creation duties for the second unit. That combination of role expansion and projected minutes makes this a strong spot for him to clear the number.

In the last four games without Luka in the lineup, James has handed out 12, 10, 10, and eight assists. His projections for Monday range from 8.0 to 9.0 dimes against a Washington defense watching opponents record an assist on 65.2% of their successful field goals (27th). In the last four games without Doncic, the veteran forward has cleaned the glass for rebounding totals of 10, nine, seven and six. The Wizards give up a league-high 57 total rebounds an outing to foes and enter tonight with a patchwork lineup.