NBA Picks

This matchup sets up as a grind. Over the last 10 games, Cleveland and Orlando rank 28th and 26th in pace while sitting third and seventh in points allowed. The Magic have been especially stingy, ranking No. 1 in opponent effective field goal percentage and allowing the fewest three-pointers per game during that span. Cleveland has cashed four straight Unders, and held Orlando to just 98 points in their late January meeting. History supports the trend too, with eight of their last 10 matchups finishing under this number.

James Harden is averaging 19.3 points over 11 games with the Cavaliers, and has cashed the Over in points in two of his last four.

The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games playing at home.. Offensive rebounds save possession and lead to extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans rank 3rd-best in in the league while at home with 13.6 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.

The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games playing at home.. Offensive rebounds save possession and lead to extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans rank 3rd-best in in the league while at home with 13.6 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.

The New York Knicks have played more games against .700 teams (4) than sub .500 teams (3) over the last 16. The Utah Jazz has played three losing foes in the last five, producing the 4-1 ATS record that has them as a trendy upset pick here. This will be just New York’s fourth game this season with a point spread this large. They’re 3-0 ATS, winning by an average of 28.7 points.

The Jazz rank as the 10th-least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games when it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc.. This year, the other team's starting PGs have tallied 4.8 3-point attempts per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) vs. the New York Knicks, making this a challenging matchup.. The 8th-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Utah Jazz.. The New York Knicks have played at the 5th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Jazz.

Kevin Durant is scoring just 24.1 points per game at home, but he’s been excellent on the road, dropping 27.9 outside of Houston. He’s been particularly effective across his last six road games, averaging 31.7 points and scoring 25+ five times. Durant has scored at least 25 points in 21 of 31 road games, and he reached that mark in each of his two games at Ball Arena this season. In a matchup that should feature plenty of scoring, I expect KD to be effective on offense and keep his team competitive on the road.

The 24.5-point line for Kevin Durant is simply too low when you look at the matchup against the Denver Nuggets. I price this prop closer to -230, which creates a significant edge and makes it my favorite bet on the board for Wednesday. Aaron Gordon is back in the lineup for Denver and will likely draw the primary assignment on Durant. While Gordon is a strong, physical defender who excels in chest-to-chest situations, he’s not the type of defender who can truly bother Durant in isolation on the perimeter or disrupt his high release point. On top of that, Nikola Jokić typically plays drop coverage, which should leave Durant with plenty of space to operate in the mid-range—an area where he’s essentially automatic. If Durant is also able to force switches, the rest of Denver’s defenders become clear mismatches, creating even more scoring opportunities for him.

The Sacramento Kings have gotten back-to-back victories against the Bulls and Pacers. Needless to say, they covered in both of those games. Even in the two losses before this short win streak, the Kings still covered spreads similar to tonight’s line, keeping things competitive against the New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns. Most importantly, Sacramento has won three consecutive meetings with Charlotte.

Charlotte has thrived in this exact spot all season, going an NBA-best 11-2 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back, most recently destroying the Celtics by 29 in Boston in this situation. The Hornets enter in far better form than Sacramento — they rank 1st in net rating over the last 10 games while the Kings sit at 25th. With the Hornets slipping slightly in the standings and Sacramento having incentive to tank after consecutive wins, the motivation edge clearly favors Charlotte here.

Julius Randle is trading at -111 for the Over 17.5 points, and that’s a number worth attacking as I price it closer to -190. Although it’s the second night of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, the spot may actually work in Randle’s favor. He didn’t play heavy minutes in the front end against the Lakers, and if the pace slows down due to tired legs, Randle becomes the type of player you can rely on in the half court to generate offense in isolation. With John Collins out, Derrick Jones Jr. is expected to start at one of the forward spots. That leaves the Clippers with several smaller defenders on the floor—such as Jones Jr., Darius Garland, and Kris Dunn—which creates opportunities for Randle to mismatch hunt and use his strength to play bully ball once he gets the ball.

The Clippers rank as the 7th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league as the home team this year.. The matchup against Minnesota is a strong one for 3-point shots; when the Timberwolves are on the road, the other team's starting SGs have tallied the 4th-most three-pointers per game in the NBA this year (2.6).. The Clippers will likely get a boost in opportunities in this contest from squaring off against the 7th-speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).

San Antonio is 9-1 SU over its last 10 and has taken four of the last five head-to-head meetings against Denver. With the Nuggets on the second leg of a back-to-back, back the Spurs to cover at home.