Atlanta @ Orlando picks

Okongwu had a monster 30-point performance in his last meeting with Orlando. That output is a bit of an anomaly for Orlando’s opponents. The Magic rank among the best defenses in the league and don’t give away many extra possessions or offensive boards. Orlando allows a league-low 9.2 offensive rebounds against as well as a league-low 11.9 second-chance points per game. In his two meetings with the Magic prior to that offensive eruption, Okongwu mustered just nine and 11 points, respectively. He shot a collective 6-for-7 from the charity stripe in those games and had just three total offensive rebounds. Okongwu’s early player projections for Tuesday all come in shorter than the 14.5-point total. 

Banchero relies on a bounty of trips to the free throw line for scoring, hitting 6.1 free throws per game to help him average 25.9 points. A playoff whistle may diminish those chances. Secondly, if doubting the full-game total of 217, then it should be trusted no one will score more than 30 points. Lastly, Orlando’s bread-and-butter is its defense. The Magic defensive rating stands at No. 2 on the season, No. 3 since the All-Star Break and No. 1 in the last month. Orlando needs to focus on its defensive efforts to avoid a win-or-go-home second Play-In game. Banchero is a piece of that. More energy spent defensively should come at the expense of his offensive production.

Onyeka Okongwu will not repeat his 30-point performance from a week ago vs. Orlando. He went 9-of-17 from the field and 4-of-7 from deep. His overall FG% was not an outlier, but going 57.1% from deep as a 32.4% 3-point shooter this season was rather absurd. Mostly, Okongwu will not take that many shots, not when his season average was 9.2 attempts per game, not when this game has a total nine points lower than that one did and not when his workload will be less than that 40-minute showing. Play-In games are played with elimination-game intensity. 11 of the 16 to open Play-In competition have gone Under their totals. Role players should not be expected to outperform their norms.

Banchero cleared this prop in three of his last four games and in seven of his last 14. On a normal night, this would be in line with expectations. But the presumed offensive struggles in the Play-In Tournament elevate those expectations, as do Banchero’s abilities in more meaningful games. While he reached nine or more rebounds in only two of his seven playoff games last year, he snagged 16 in Game 7, he reached eight boards in two more of those first-round tests, and he has improved as a rebounder this year. He snagged 7.5 boards per game this season compared to 6.9 a year ago, increased his per 36 minutes average by 0.8 rebounds and jumped his total rebounding rate to 12.5% from 11.6%.