Oklahoma City @ Indiana picks

Tuesday's report of a possible calf strain makes it clear, Tyrese Haliburton will struggle to play Thursday night, if play at all. A limited or absent Haliburton means the ball will be in Andrew Nembhard's hands significantly more, his regular-season usage rate jumping to 22.7% without Haliburton compared to 15.7% with the star point guard.

Chet Holmgren has averaged 15.6 points per game in the playoffs — 15.2 at home and 16.1 on the road. He’s scored at least 15 in five of nine road appearances.

Jalen Williams averaged 21.6 points in the regular season, and he’s averaged 21.7 in the playoffs. Across 90 combined appearances, he’s hit the Under on this scoring line 55 times. He’s hit the Under in 11 of 21 in the playoffs.

T.J. McConnell came away with 18 points in 22 minutes in Game 5, including a 13-point third quarter that buoyed Haliburton as he literally and figuratively limped to just four points in the game. McConnell can reach 10 points even if his minutes don’t get a bump, but I suspect he’ll see some extra playing time in Game 6, making this a worthwhile bet...and I like the alt line of 10+ points just a touch more.

Most prop markets have properly adjusted to Tyrese Haliburton's calf injury and possible absence from Game 6, but when you ponder the ripple effects of that worry, value can be found in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's prop market. Without Haliburton, Indiana will need to rely on Andrew Nembhard more offensively. To spare him, the Pacers may move Nembhard off SGA. At that point, SGA should push for 40 points to clinch the Finals.

Pascal Siakam averaged 20.1 points in 72 games alongside Tyrese Haliburton this season and 21.5 in six games without him. That is not surprising; Haliburton's shots need to go to someone. But Siakam cleared this prop in four of five games that Haliburton missed in which Siakam played at least 25 minutes, and that showed in Game 5, as Haliburton was so clearly limited and Siakam scored 28 points.

Tyrese Haliburton has successfully made 8.6 buckets per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.6 more than he's made overall this year on his home court.. Among all players in the NBA, Tyrese Haliburton ranks in the 92nd percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 34.0 minutes per game this year.. The Indiana Pacers check in as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 15 games.. This year, opposing starting PGs have totaled 7.7 three attempts per game (most in the league) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, branding this as a strong matchup.. The Pacers have played at the 8th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 15 games.

Luguentz Dort has made 55.6% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games on the road, 16.6% more than he's converted overall this season on the road.. Luguentz Dort has successfully made 63.8% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games, 26.5% more than he's converted from three in all games this season.. Among all players in the NBA, Luguentz Dort rates in the 78th percentile for playing time, logging a monstrous 29.2 minutes per game this year.. This year, the other team's starting SGs have logged 19.0 points per game (highest in the NBA) vs. the Indiana Pacers, labeling this as a favorable matchup for offensive production.. The Thunder have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the league this year.

The number of field goals sunk against Myles Turner has been remarkably high (5.2 per game) when matched up against other starting Cs this year (100th percentile).. The Thunder have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the league this year.. The Thunder will likely see an increase in plays in this contest from competing against the 8th-quickest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 15 games (the Indiana Pacers).. Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Oklahoma City Thunder grade out 5th-best in in the league as the visting team with 12.6 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

Over the last 5 games when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PFs have registered 11.0 points per game (3rd-fewest in the league) vs. the Thunder, creating a difficult matchup for offensive performance.. The Pacers check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Myles Turner has totaled 5.3 defensive boards per game while at home this year, placing him in the 91st percentile -- near the top of the league by this standard.. Among all players in the league, Myles Turner comes in at the 81st percentile for playing time, totaling a colossal 30.1 minutes per game this year.. The Pacers have played at the 8th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 15 games.. The Thunder have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace in the league this year, which should lead to increased opportunities for the Pacers.. Myles Turner will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home stadium usually increases stat production for all stats.

Tyrese Haliburton has attempted 7.6 three-pointers per game this year, placing him in the 95th percentile among all players in the NBA.. Among all players in the NBA, Tyrese Haliburton ranks in the 92nd percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 34.0 minutes per game this year.. The Pacers have been the 4th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games.. This year, opposing starting PGs have totaled 7.7 three attempts per game (most in the league) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, branding this as a strong matchup.. The Pacers have played at the 8th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 15 games.

Chet Holmgren has averaged 28.5 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 77th percentile.. The Thunder have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the league this year.. The Thunder will likely see an increase in plays in this contest from competing against the 8th-quickest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 15 games (the Indiana Pacers).. Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Oklahoma City Thunder grade out 5th-best in in the league as the visting team with 12.6 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

Among all players in the NBA, Tyrese Haliburton ranks in the 92nd percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 34.0 minutes per game this year.. The Pacers have played at the 8th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 15 games.. The Thunder have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace in the league this year, which should lead to increased opportunities for the Pacers.. Tyrese Haliburton should see a rise in production for all stats due to possessing the home court advantage in this matchup.

Alex Caruso has tallied 29.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 8.5 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year.. The Thunder have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the league this year.. The Thunder will likely see an increase in plays in this contest from competing against the 8th-quickest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 15 games (the Indiana Pacers).. Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Oklahoma City Thunder grade out 5th-best in in the league as the visting team with 12.6 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.