Indiana @ New York picks

Karl-Anthony Towns was fantastic in the ECF opener, finishing the thrilling overtime affair with 35 points – 33 of those tallies in regulation. KAT went 11 for 17 from the field, including 4 of 7 from beyond the arc, and added 9 of 11 free throws in 39 minutes of play. He averaged 50.7 and 46.0 average touches in the first two series but saw this metric spike to 61.0 in Game 1 of the conference finals. The Pacers utilized Myles Turner on KAT for the most part, with Towns slicing him up for 18 points on 78% shooting over 7:36 of matchup time. They also rotated the smaller Pascal Siakam on Towns, giving up 11 points on a perfect 4-for-4 shooting along with two free throws. Early projections are sitting around KAT’s current Over/Under of 23.5 points and we’ve seen sharper shops increase the vig on the Over, indicated early opinions on Towns’ output.

Jalen Brunson scored 43 points on 15-25 shooting in Game 1, but he didn't do much as a facilitator. Not only did Brunson finish with a modest five assists, he also had just six potential assists. Brunson has now logged fewer than 7.5 dimes in eight of his last nine games, and I don't see him bucking that trend here. The Pacers allowed the 12th-fewest assists per game (26.0) in the NBA during the regular season. They've significantly slowed down their pace in the playoffs and have lowered that number to just 20.4 apg over their last five games. 

Jalen Brunson has tallied 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 more than he's tallied overall this season.. When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the least aggressive team in the NBA playing at home this year has been the New York Knicks.. This year, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled 4.6 three attempts per game (lowest in the league) against the Indiana Pacers, marking this as a challenging matchup.. The 3rd-least up-tempo pace home team in the league over the last 10 games has been the New York Knicks.. The matchup against the Indiana Pacers may be a tough one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted just 3.5 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (5th-least in the NBA).

Karl-Anthony Towns has been called for 3.6 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the NBA (100th percentile).. When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the least aggressive team in the NBA playing at home this year has been the New York Knicks.. The 3rd-least up-tempo pace home team in the league over the last 10 games has been the New York Knicks.

Aaron Nesmith has converted 4.0 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.7 higher than he's converted overall this year without the home court advantage.. Aaron Nesmith has tallied 31.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.8 more than he's tallied over the course of the season.. The Pacers rank as the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from home.. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo visiting offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Indiana Pacers.. Compared to last year's 81.5% clip, Aaron Nesmith's free-throw performance has spiked this year to 90.8%.

Karl-Anthony Towns has put up 2.8 assists per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the league in this category: 75th percentile.. Among all players in the NBA, Karl-Anthony Towns measures in the 94th percentile for playing time, totaling an enormous 34.8 minutes per game while playing at home this year.. The New York Knicks will likely see an increase in opportunities in this game from facing the 6th-speediest tempo road team in the league over the last 15 games (the Indiana Pacers).. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in more chances for scoring and assists, and the New York Knicks rank 4th-best in in the league with 12.8 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.. Karl-Anthony Towns will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home tends to increase player performance across the board.